Roland Garros · QF · Clay · 5 Jun 2002
Marat Safin v Sebastien Grosjean
96–59 in points · Marat Safin won
Why it went the way it did
Marat Safin won 18.9 more points than Sebastien Grosjean relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sebastien Grosjean's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.3, slice shot selection −3.0, serve 1st execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marat Safin | Sebastien Grosjean | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −2.0 | −2.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +1.3 | +1.1 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.7 | +2.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.7 | +3.7 | +6.0 | +0.3 | +1.5 | −4.3 | −2.4 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | −0.6 | +3.7 | +3.6 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −1.7 | −0.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.0 | −0.6 | −2.7 | ±0.0 | −3.0 | +0.1 | −2.9 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +2.9 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −1.6 |
| All shots | +1.4 | −0.1 | +10.0 | +11.3 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −6.4 | −7.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Marat Safin | Sebastien Grosjean | Net, Marat | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.3 | −1.7 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | +3.1 | −3.6 | +6.7 | |
| 3 | +4.9 | −2.3 | +7.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marat Safin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 80% | 8% 50% | 50% 92% |
| 2 | 30% 83% | 5% 100% | 65% 69% |
| 3 | 37% 86% | 5% 100% | 58% 73% |
Set to set +0.05 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Sebastien Grosjean serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 78% | 5% 0% | 47% 56% |
| 2 | 58% 48% | 6% 50% | 36% 54% |
| 3 | 44% 50% | 22% 33% | 33% 56% |
Set to set +0.52 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marat Safin
6.6 points left on the table across 300 shots 2.21 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit BH smash through the middle ×1; BH smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Sebastien Grosjean
7.7 points left on the table across 298 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts