Paris Masters · SF · Hard · 1 Nov 2003
Jiri Novak v Andrei Pavel
87–95 in points · Andrei Pavel won
Why it went the way it did
Andrei Pavel won 1.4 more points than Jiri Novak relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jiri Novak's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.3, serve 1st execution −2.3, slice shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jiri Novak | Andrei Pavel | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.3 | −2.3 | −2.7 | +0.1 | +1.2 | −2.9 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.9 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −0.6 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −1.0 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.9 | +5.4 | +6.9 | −0.6 | +2.6 | −2.1 | −0.2 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.6 | −3.3 | −3.6 | −0.5 | +0.2 | +4.8 | +4.5 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −1.3 | −0.7 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −2.4 | −0.9 | −3.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.5 | −0.6 | −0.4 | +3.1 | +2.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.8 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −1.0 | −1.6 | −2.5 | −2.0 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −1.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Jiri Novak | Andrei Pavel | Net, Jiri | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.1 | −0.4 | −4.7 | |
| 2 | ±0.0 | −3.5 | +3.4 | |
| 3 | +2.7 | +2.8 | −0.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jiri Novak serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 50% | 9% 50% | 45% 50% |
| 2 | 50% 71% | 11% 67% | 39% 55% |
| 3 | 47% 40% | 16% 60% | 38% 75% |
Set to set +1.10 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andrei Pavel serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 73% | 4% 100% | 33% 63% |
| 2 | 47% 56% | 11% 50% | 42% 56% |
| 3 | 55% 48% | 3% 0% | 42% 75% |
Set to set +2.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jiri Novak
8.4 points left on the table across 384 shots 2.20 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
Andrei Pavel
12.6 points left on the table across 390 shots 3.23 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts