Andrei Pavel

Against an average opponent

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,281 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Andrei Pavel goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Andrei Pavel's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 55 break-point first serves.

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Exploitability 0.34 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.5±7.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (316 repeats, 375 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Andrei Pavel's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Andrei Pavel wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 55% · +4.7±11.6 vs own baseline · +15.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (6/10)
2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.3% · won 50% · −0.2±12.3 vs own baseline · +5.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jiri Novak (5/8)
3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 50% · −0.2±12.3 vs own baseline · +1.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (5/12)
4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 50% · −0.2±12.0 vs own baseline · +1.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (5/10)
5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 50% · −0.2±12.0 vs own baseline · +1.2 vs tour on the same sequence
6. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 44% · −6.2±12.6 vs own baseline · −10.6 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Charted matches

• Andre Agassi v Andrei Pavel US Open R128 · Hard · 28 Aug 2006
• Roger Federer v Andrei Pavel L Indian Wells Masters R64 · Hard · 10 Mar 2004
• Jiri Novak v Andrei Pavel W Paris Masters SF · Hard · 1 Nov 2003
• Gustavo Kuerten v Andrei Pavel Hamburg Masters R32 · Clay · 15 May 2002
• Roger Federer v Andrei Pavel L Miami Masters QF · Hard · 28 Mar 2002
• Patrick Rafter v Andrei Pavel W Canada Masters F · Hard · 5 Aug 2001
• Tommy Haas v Andrei Pavel W Canada Masters SF · Hard · 4 Aug 2001
• Roger Federer v Andrei Pavel L Basel R16 · Hard · 24 Oct 2000
• Andrei Pavel v Patrick Rafter L s Hertogenbosch F · Grass · 20 Jun 1999