Indian Wells Masters · QF · Hard · 16 Mar 2005
Roger Federer v Nicolas Kiefer
57–37 in points · Roger Federer won
Why it went the way it did
Roger Federer won 11.4 more points than Nicolas Kiefer relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nicolas Kiefer's biggest leaks: return execution −1.7, serve 1st execution −1.7, forehand execution −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roger Federer | Nicolas Kiefer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −1.7 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +1.9 | −0.1 | +0.5 | −1.7 | −1.2 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.1 | +2.5 | +3.7 | +0.1 | +0.9 | −1.0 | ±0.0 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.9 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −0.9 | +0.8 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −1.1 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | −2.0 | −2.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −0.2 | +1.6 | +3.8 | +5.2 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −7.2 | −6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Roger Federer | Nicolas Kiefer | Net, Roger | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.3 | −3.4 | +3.7 | |
| 2 | +4.9 | −2.8 | +7.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roger Federer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 54% | – | 41% 56% |
| 2 | 60% 92% | 5% 100% | 35% 57% |
Within sets −2.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nicolas Kiefer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 44% | 6% 100% | 41% 43% |
| 2 | 61% 36% | – | 39% 43% |
Set to set −0.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.50 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roger Federer
4.9 points left on the table across 161 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Nicolas Kiefer
4.1 points left on the table across 151 shots 2.72 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts