RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 10 charted matches · 1999–2008

Nicolas Kiefer

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.2% ±3.6 raw 58.0% · tour 63.4% · 777 points
Return points won 36.0% ±3.7 raw 30.8% · tour 36.6% · 685 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.09 ±0.17 better than 80% of ATP · raw +0.09
Shot selection +0.16 ±0.23 better than 71% of ATP · raw +0.15
Execution −1.52 ±0.70 better than 9% of ATP · raw −1.72
Tactical adaptability +0.07 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed +0.07 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.54 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 56% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,825 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Nicolas Kiefer goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 228 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 52% 42.1%±6.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 21% 43.7%±9.9 43.7%
FH inside-out 6% 48.1%±14.1 51.8%
BH down the line 5% 41.5%±14.3 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 4% 40.1%±14.7 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 162 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 40% 39.7%±8.8 46.6%
FH down the line 34% 43.9%±9.4 44.7%
FH through the middle 23% 38.4%±10.5 41.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 155 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 50% 43.5%±8.2 48.0%
BH through the middle 21% 55.3%±11.3 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 45.6%±13.7 42.1%
BH down the line 9% 42.0%±13.9 46.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 152 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 27% 41.9%±10.4 52.7%
FH down the line 23% 38.7%±10.8 51.5%
BH crosscourt 16% 41.8%±12.1 49.1%
BH through the middle 13% 35.9%±12.5 46.8%
FH through the middle 13% 42.1%±13.0 47.0%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +7 How much less varied Nicolas Kiefer's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 93 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 64% ▲ 72% / 73%
Body 7% 0% 63% / 63%
T 45% 36% ▼ 77% / 75%

379 normal · 25 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 51% 60% ▲ 71% / 73%
Body 3% 4% 59% / 63%
T 46% 35% ▼ 70% / 72%

298 normal · 68 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 57.0%±5.4 n=200 43% ▼
Body6% 55.3%±11.0 n=25 0% ▼
T44% 63.2%±5.5 n=179 57% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.19).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 57.0%±5.5 n=192 43% ▼
Body3% 55.9%±12.6 n=12 0% ▼
T44% 58.1%±5.9 n=162 57% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.87).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.36 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −6.4±4.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (322 repeats, 428 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 15 38% +1.0±11.9
1stAd courtT 94 21% −6.7±6.0
1stAd courtWide 96 27% −0.1±6.5
1stDeuce courtBody 18 29% −7.5±10.8
1stDeuce courtT 105 23% −2.5±5.9
1stDeuce courtWide 94 24% −2.9±6.3
2ndAd courtBody 31 54% +4.4±10.5
2ndAd courtT 19 42% −6.9±11.6
2ndAd courtWide 68 47% −0.9±8.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 52 41% −7.9±8.9
2ndDeuce courtT 69 45% −4.3±8.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 24 42% −6.6±11.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Nicolas Kiefer's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.0% · won 64% · −7.9±11.1 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 7.1% · won 59% · −12.4±10.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 16.7% · won 47% · +11.0±8.8 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 10.5% · won 45% · +8.5±10.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 8.0% · won 39% · +3.1±11.1 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 7.7% · won 32% · −3.8±10.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 10.1% · won 47% · +3.9±8.7 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 4.8% · won 44% · +1.5±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 44% · +1.0±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.3% · won 44% · +0.6±10.1 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 43% · +0.4±11.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Nicolas Kiefer wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 0.9% · won 52% · +8.9±12.7 vs own baseline · +19.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Igor Andreev (5/7)
  2. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH through the middle used 0.9% · won 50% · +7.7±12.9 vs own baseline · +19.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Igor Andreev (8/12)
  3. BH crosscourt → FH inside-out → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 48% · +5.4±12.6 vs own baseline · +8.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Igor Andreev (5/7)
  4. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 47% · +4.3±12.4 vs own baseline · +7.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (2/7), Igor Andreev (5/6)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 47% · +4.2±12.7 vs own baseline · −0.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (4/7), Gilles Simon (4/6)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 45% · +2.4±9.9 vs own baseline · −1.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · deuce court+0.8179
BH to the middle · return+0.8132
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.6200
BH to their backhand · rally−1.3248
Wide 2nd serve · ad court−2.0123

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · rally−1.0125
T 1st serve · ad court−0.8145
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.5180
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.2156
BH to their backhand · rally±0.0220

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Raphael Collignon, Jack Draper, Pedro Martinez, Thiago Monteiro

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · deuce50%
T serves · ad44%
Points at net15%
Unforced errors / shot11.5%
Serve & volley19%
Wide serves · ad52%
FH down the line32%
Run-around forehands21%
Avg rally length4.0
T serves · deuce44%
Drop shots / shot1.3%
Forehand share52%
Through the middle24%
Point-ending shots22.6%
Backhand slice16%
Chipped returns10%
BH down the line11%
Deep returns14%
1st serve in54%

Plays most like

  1. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005 plan v
  2. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002 plan v
  3. Mario Ancic 2002–2008 plan v
  4. Wayne Ferreira 1992–2003 plan v
  5. Andreas Seppi 2008–2021 plan v
  6. Marin Cilic 2009–2026 plan v
  7. Mardy Fish 2003–2012 plan v
  8. Thomas Johansson 1996–2005 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Otto Virtanen 2022–2025
  2. James Duckworth 2014–2026
  3. Matteo Arnaldi 2022–2025

Charted matches