Roland Garros · QF · Clay · 6 Jun 2007
Tommy Robredo v Roger Federer
81–108 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Roger Federer won 15.1 more points than Tommy Robredo relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tommy Robredo's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.4, return execution −1.5, touch shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tommy Robredo | Roger Federer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.0 | −0.3 | +1.7 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.3 | +1.8 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.6 | −1.5 | −2.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | +2.5 |
| Forehand | −0.9 | +3.4 | −0.8 | +1.7 | +0.4 | +5.3 | −4.3 | +1.4 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −1.3 | −0.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.4 | +0.2 | −3.4 | −0.1 | −2.1 | −0.2 | −2.4 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +3.3 | +4.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −1.5 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.8 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −3.1 | −2.2 | −1.4 | −6.7 | +1.4 | +4.6 | +2.5 | +8.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Tommy Robredo | Roger Federer | Net, Tommy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.5 | +3.8 | −7.2 | |
| 2 | +2.8 | −4.0 | +6.7 | |
| 3 | −2.0 | +5.3 | −7.4 | |
| 4 | −3.9 | +3.3 | −7.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tommy Robredo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% 50% | 31% 55% | 34% 67% |
| 2 | 40% 67% | 40% 75% | 20% 67% |
| 3 | 53% 38% | 33% 40% | 13% 50% |
| 4 | 36% 38% | 50% 27% | 14% 67% |
Set to set −0.85 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.65 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Roger Federer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 88% | 11% 100% | 29% 63% |
| 2 | 56% 20% | 6% 100% | 39% 57% |
| 3 | 57% 92% | 10% 0% | 33% 86% |
| 4 | 60% 75% | 10% 50% | 30% 67% |
Set to set +2.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets ±0.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tommy Robredo
12.2 points left on the table across 400 shots 3.05 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
Roger Federer
9.2 points left on the table across 420 shots 2.18 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts