Australian Open · R16 · Hard · 24 Jan 2010
Fernando Verdasco v Nikolay Davydenko
157–171 in points · Nikolay Davydenko won
Why it went the way it did
Nikolay Davydenko won 4.5 more points than Fernando Verdasco relative to what the serve alone predicted. Fernando Verdasco's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −7.8, slice shot selection −5.8, slice execution −3.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Fernando Verdasco | Nikolay Davydenko | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.7 | −0.3 | −1.2 | −2.2 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −3.5 | −4.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | −0.1 | −7.8 | −7.7 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.2 | +1.1 | −0.3 | +0.9 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −7.7 | −7.7 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.5 | +2.1 | +4.8 | +0.2 | +2.3 | −0.7 | +1.8 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | +0.6 | −2.4 | −2.3 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −0.5 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −5.8 | −3.0 | −8.5 | ±0.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 | −2.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.6 | +0.7 | +2.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −0.2 | −2.0 | −13.2 | −15.4 | −1.8 | +1.5 | −10.6 | −10.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Fernando Verdasco | Nikolay Davydenko | Net, Fernando | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.6 | −1.6 | −1.0 | |
| 2 | −2.2 | +2.7 | −4.9 | |
| 3 | −2.4 | −5.1 | +2.6 | |
| 4 | −5.1 | −6.2 | +1.1 | |
| 5 | −3.1 | −0.9 | −2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Fernando Verdasco serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 64% | 14% 33% | 36% 50% |
| 2 | 46% 56% | 23% 50% | 31% 55% |
| 3 | 53% 69% | 7% 50% | 40% 67% |
| 4 | 37% 53% | 22% 67% | 41% 76% |
| 5 | 33% 78% | 22% 50% | 44% 50% |
Set to set −0.77 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nikolay Davydenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 60% | 19% 29% | 53% 74% |
| 2 | 53% 76% | 16% 20% | 31% 80% |
| 3 | 29% 78% | 16% 20% | 55% 59% |
| 4 | 39% 73% | 16% 50% | 45% 59% |
| 5 | 47% 59% | 8% 67% | 44% 75% |
Set to set +1.46 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Fernando Verdasco
15.8 points left on the table across 592 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×10; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
Nikolay Davydenko
13.6 points left on the table across 564 shots 2.41 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×19; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.69 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts