Gstaad · F · Clay · 22 Jul 2012
Janko Tipsarevic v Thomaz Bellucci
91–102 in points · Thomaz Bellucci won
Why it went the way it did
Thomaz Bellucci won 6.3 more points than Janko Tipsarevic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Janko Tipsarevic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.9, return execution −2.3, forehand execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Janko Tipsarevic | Thomaz Bellucci | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.6 | −1.6 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +0.9 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.8 | −2.3 | −3.4 | −0.1 | +2.8 | −3.8 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +2.3 | −2.3 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +2.4 | +0.2 | +2.2 |
| Backhand | −0.7 | −1.3 | −1.9 | −3.8 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −4.8 | −5.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.9 | −1.0 | −3.9 | −0.1 | −2.4 | +0.7 | −1.8 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.9 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.8 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.8 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.3 | −2.8 | −6.6 | −10.8 | −1.4 | +3.5 | −6.5 | −4.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Janko Tipsarevic | Thomaz Bellucci | Net, Janko | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.5 | −3.8 | +3.2 | |
| 2 | −2.4 | +0.2 | −2.5 | |
| 3 | −7.9 | −0.9 | −7.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Janko Tipsarevic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 71% | 5% 0% | 57% 71% |
| 2 | 29% 50% | 7% 50% | 64% 67% |
| 3 | 43% 47% | 9% 33% | 49% 53% |
Set to set −0.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Thomaz Bellucci serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 59% | 15% 50% | 28% 64% |
| 2 | 44% 64% | 25% 88% | 31% 60% |
| 3 | 59% 85% | 5% 100% | 36% 50% |
Set to set +0.31 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.71 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Janko Tipsarevic
9.9 points left on the table across 378 shots 2.63 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.35 pts
Thomaz Bellucci
10.9 points left on the table across 401 shots 2.71 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts