Delray Beach · QF · Hard · 20 Feb 2015
Steve Johnson v Ivo Karlovic
58–68 in points · Ivo Karlovic won
Why it went the way it did
Ivo Karlovic won 3.9 more points than Steve Johnson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Steve Johnson's biggest leaks: return execution −7.0, serve 1st execution −2.0, slice shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Steve Johnson | Ivo Karlovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −2.6 | −0.2 | +2.6 | −0.6 | +1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −0.1 | +1.3 | −1.6 | −0.4 |
| Return | −0.2 | +1.2 | −7.0 | −6.0 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −2.9 | −3.5 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.2 | −0.9 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −2.7 | −2.1 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.6 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −1.0 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.8 | −3.7 | −2.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +0.8 | −12.8 | −12.3 | +0.7 | +3.2 | −12.4 | −8.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Steve Johnson | Ivo Karlovic | Net, Steve | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.7 | −2.7 | −5.0 | |
| 2 | −4.6 | −5.8 | +1.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Steve Johnson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17% 0% | 22% 40% | 61% 71% |
| 2 | 39% 79% | 33% 83% | 28% 60% |
Within sets +2.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ivo Karlovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 67% | 9% 100% | 52% 75% |
| 2 | 32% 64% | 11% 80% | 57% 72% |
Within sets +0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Steve Johnson
4.9 points left on the table across 123 shots 4.00 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Ivo Karlovic
3.8 points left on the table across 124 shots 3.03 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts