RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 45 charted matches · 2003–2021

Ivo Karlovic

Archetype: Serve-and-volleyer · Net rusher (6)

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 70.4% ±2.3 raw 70.9% · tour 63.4% · 3,854 points
Return points won 30.2% ±2.4 raw 25.5% · tour 36.6% · 3,723 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.09 ±0.11 better than 32% of ATP · raw −0.09
Shot selection +0.49 ±0.20 better than 92% of ATP · raw +0.49
Execution −2.18 ±0.54 better than 1% of ATP · raw −2.12
Tactical adaptability −0.15 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 38 matches
Adaptation speed −0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 4.41 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 2% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 13,230 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Ivo Karlovic goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 444 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice through the middle 32% 25.2%±5.6 32.6%
BH slice crosscourt 24% 36.1%±7.1 40.9%
BH slice down the line 16% 38.3%±8.3 33.3%
BH slice down the line + approach 6% 45.9%±12.2 48.3%
BH slice crosscourt + approach 5% 39.1%±12.1 45.9%
FH inside-out 4% 54.7%±13.1 51.7%
BH down the line 3% 30.7%±13.4 44.2%
BH slice through the middle + approach 2% 46.6%±14.7 42.2%

Return +1: drive to your forehand side

position worth 41% to the average player · 329 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 34.6%±6.2 45.3%
FH through the middle 23% 28.3%±7.6 39.4%
FH down the line 20% 28.1%±8.0 40.9%
FH slice through the middle 8% 19.0%±9.4 24.5%

Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net

position worth 61% to the average player · 326 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH volley down the line 22% 63.9%±8.2 63.8%
BH volley down the line 21% 54.7%±8.7 58.4%
BH volley crosscourt 18% 58.2%±9.1 62.9%
FH volley crosscourt 17% 69.4%±8.7 68.7%
FH volley through the middle 9% 39.4%±11.5 46.6%
BH volley through the middle 8% 40.5%±11.9 43.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 276 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice through the middle 28% 33.4%±7.9 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 26% 33.2%±8.1 42.5%
BH slice down the line 14% 29.0%±9.6 37.1%
FH inside-out 5% 39.3%±13.8 51.8%
BH slice down the line + approach 5% 47.6%±14.3 48.6%
BH through the middle 4% 28.2%±13.3 43.7%
BH slice through the middle + approach 4% 49.2%±14.8 41.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −2 How much less varied Ivo Karlovic's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 210 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 62% ▲ 84% / 73%
Body 8% 5% 66% / 63%
T 48% 33% ▼ 82% / 75%

1,963 normal · 58 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 62% 56% 82% / 73%
Body 7% 8% 66% / 63%
T 31% 36% 78% / 72%

1,661 normal · 152 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 73.4%±2.4 n=897 57% ▲
Body8% 65.7%±5.7 n=158 0% ▼
T48% 72.3%±2.3 n=966 43% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.06).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide62% 69.7%±2.2 n=1,122 75% ▲
Body7% 65.7%±6.4 n=120 0% ▼
T31% 69.7%±3.1 n=571 25% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.49).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.68 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.7±2.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,696 repeats, 2,048 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 193 28% −9.1±4.9
1stAd courtT 406 19% −9.4±3.1
1stAd courtWide 566 22% −5.2±2.8
1stDeuce courtBody 226 21% −15.2±4.2
1stDeuce courtT 628 16% −8.7±2.4
1stDeuce courtWide 445 19% −7.8±3.0
2ndAd courtBody 162 47% −2.6±5.9
2ndAd courtT 115 38% −10.8±6.6
2ndAd courtWide 310 35% −13.2±4.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 224 35% −13.7±4.9
2ndDeuce courtT 278 46% −3.3±4.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 143 36% −12.0±6.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Ivo Karlovic's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH volley crosscourt used 2.5% · won 67% · −9.2±7.2 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → BH volley down the line used 2.5% · won 62% · −14.9±7.5 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → BH volley down the line used 2.6% · won 56% · −20.8±7.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice through the middle, deep used 2.3% · won 35% · +9.8±8.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice through the middle, mid used 2.9% · won 33% · +7.6±7.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice through the middle, short used 2.1% · won 34% · +8.3±8.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 2.2% · won 33% · +7.9±8.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice through the middle, mid used 3.4% · won 31% · +5.7±6.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.9% · won 40% · +4.4±10.5 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 5.9% · won 40% · +4.4±10.5 vs own baseline
  3. BH slice down the line → FH crosscourt used 4.8% · won 37% · +0.7±10.8 vs own baseline
  4. BH slice through the middle → FH down the line used 5.5% · won 35% · −1.2±10.4 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle used 4.6% · won 34% · −2.4±10.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Ivo Karlovic wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH through the middle return → FH volley crosscourt used 0.7% · won 57% · +12.5±11.4 vs own baseline · −4.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gael Monfils (5/6)
  2. Body serve → BH through the middle return → FH volley down the line used 0.5% · won 57% · +12.5±12.3 vs own baseline · +13.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gael Monfils (5/7)
  3. Wide serve → FH through the middle return → FH volley down the line used 0.4% · won 58% · +13.2±12.9 vs own baseline · +9.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. BH volley down the line → FH crosscourt → FH volley down the line used 0.4% · won 58% · +13.2±12.9 vs own baseline · +3.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. Wide serve → FH through the middle return → BH volley crosscourt used 0.4% · won 57% · +11.8±12.7 vs own baseline · +3.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH volley down the line → FH down the line → BH volley crosscourt used 0.6% · won 54% · +9.0±12.2 vs own baseline · −10.6 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court+5.51,122
FH to their forehand · serve +1+5.0126
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+5.0897
T 1st serve · ad court+4.5571
T 1st serve · deuce court+3.8966

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · return +1−7.0175
FH to their forehand · return +1−3.1185
Wide 2nd serve · deuce court−2.5143
BH to their forehand · return +1−1.6125
BH to their backhand · return−1.6350

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Jack Draper, Ugo Humbert, Rafael Nadal, Casper Ruud, Pablo Carreno Busta

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Backhand slice86%
BH down the line47%
Chipped returns59%
Serve & volley72%
Point-ending shots42.0%
Unforced errors / shot16.2%
Points at net25%
Wide serves · ad62%
1st serve in66%
FH down the line34%
Deep returns32%
T serves · deuce48%
Drop shots / shot1.9%
Wide serves · deuce44%
Run-around forehands19%
Forehand share51%
T serves · ad31%
Through the middle19%
Avg rally length2.5

Plays most like

  1. Greg Rusedski 1993–2005 plan v
  2. Richard Krajicek 1992–2000 plan v
  3. Tim Henman 1995–2006 plan v
  4. Max Mirnyi 2001–2006 plan v
  5. Patrick Rafter 1993–2001 plan v
  6. Nicolas Mahut 2007–2021 plan v
  7. Gilles Muller 2005–2017 plan v
  8. Steve Johnson 2015–2022 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Richard Krajicek 1992–2000
  2. Patrick Rafter 1993–2001
  3. Boris Becker 1985–1999

Charted matches