Nottingham · R16 · Grass · 24 Jun 2015
Sam Querrey v Pablo Cuevas
90–84 in points · Sam Querrey won
Why it went the way it did
Sam Querrey won 5.8 more points than Pablo Cuevas relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pablo Cuevas's biggest leaks: return execution −6.0, forehand execution −3.4, slice execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sam Querrey | Pablo Cuevas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.3 | +1.9 | +1.4 | −0.3 | −0.4 | +1.2 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −6.0 | −6.4 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +0.7 | −5.0 | −3.6 | +0.1 | +0.7 | −3.4 | −2.7 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −1.3 | −2.0 | −3.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +1.9 | +2.8 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −1.0 | +0.3 | −1.0 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.6 | −1.5 | −2.4 | −3.4 | +0.4 | −0.8 | −8.7 | −9.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Sam Querrey | Pablo Cuevas | Net, Sam | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.4 | −6.5 | +3.1 | |
| 2 | ±0.0 | −2.7 | +2.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sam Querrey serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 79% | 11% 40% | 47% 67% |
| 2 | 62% 81% | 12% 75% | 26% 100% |
Set to set +1.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pablo Cuevas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 60% | 12% 71% | 44% 64% |
| 2 | 45% 71% | 18% 71% | 37% 86% |
Set to set +0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sam Querrey
4.3 points left on the table across 191 shots 2.24 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Pablo Cuevas
5.7 points left on the table across 178 shots 3.20 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH down the line ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts