RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 11 charted matches · 2015–2021

Pablo Cuevas

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 68.1% ±3.1 raw 68.0% · tour 63.4% · 716 points
Return points won 36.5% ±3.2 raw 36.1% · tour 36.6% · 781 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.11 ±0.14 better than 27% of ATP · raw −0.11
Shot selection −0.11 ±0.22 better than 39% of ATP · raw −0.10
Execution −0.82 ±0.66 better than 32% of ATP · raw −0.72
Tactical adaptability +0.02 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 11 matches
Adaptation speed +0.08 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.67 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 41% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,710 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Pablo Cuevas goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 228 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 44.6%±7.5 47.6%
BH through the middle 20% 54.2%±10.1 43.7%
BH down the line 9% 38.2%±12.6 46.4%
FH inside-out 7% 53.8%±13.7 51.8%
FH inside-in 7% 47.0%±13.7 54.7%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 40.9%±14.1 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 34.5%±13.8 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 212 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 28% 48.0%±9.2 47.0%
FH down the line 26% 43.8%±9.4 51.5%
FH crosscourt 23% 54.4%±9.9 52.7%
BH through the middle 10% 37.5%±12.4 46.8%
BH crosscourt 10% 50.8%±12.8 49.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 150 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 53% 37.3%±8.0 46.6%
FH through the middle 25% 39.1%±10.6 41.5%
FH down the line 19% 45.7%±11.8 44.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 138 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 48.7%±9.8 48.0%
BH through the middle 20% 39.9%±11.8 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 30.4%±13.6 42.1%
FH inside-out 8% 56.5%±14.6 52.6%
BH slice through the middle 8% 32.3%±13.8 35.1%
FH inside-in 7% 56.2%±14.9 54.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Pablo Cuevas's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 51 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 37% 20% ▼ 83% / 73%
Body 9% 7% 59% / 63%
T 54% 73% ▲ 71% / 75%

356 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 58% 42% ▼ 74% / 73%
Body 11% 14% 72% / 63%
T 31% 44% ▲ 69% / 72%

308 normal · 36 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide36% 73.7%±5.7 n=134 49% ▲
Body9% 63.7%±10.0 n=32 0% ▼
T55% 66.6%±5.1 n=205 51% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.11).
Optimal mix: +0.9 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide57% 69.8%±5.0 n=195 70% ▲
Body11% 71.4%±8.9 n=39 0% ▼
T32% 60.9%±6.8 n=110 30% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.06).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.74 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.7±6.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (355 repeats, 338 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 32 44% +6.7±10.4
1stAd courtT 85 26% −2.5±6.7
1stAd courtWide 118 27% −0.1±6.0
1stDeuce courtBody 37 30% −6.8±9.2
1stDeuce courtT 113 27% +1.9±6.1
1stDeuce courtWide 98 29% +1.8±6.6
2ndAd courtBody 35 43% −6.6±10.1
2ndAd courtT 17 53% +3.5±12.0
2ndAd courtWide 86 50% +1.2±7.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 48 47% −2.0±9.3
2ndDeuce courtT 79 48% −2.1±7.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 31 53% +5.1±10.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Pablo Cuevas's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.7% · won 74% · +0.4±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 5.8% · won 71% · −3.2±9.5 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.8% · won 70% · −4.1±10.0 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.5% · won 69% · −5.2±10.4 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 62% · −11.6±11.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 11.0% · won 44% · +6.5±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 9.3% · won 41% · +3.3±10.7 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 6.9% · won 40% · +3.0±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, short used 6.9% · won 32% · −5.0±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 7.9% · won 21% · −16.3±9.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 52% · +8.3±11.2 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 4.8% · won 49% · +5.6±10.7 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.3% · won 49% · +4.8±10.4 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.5% · won 48% · +4.3±9.8 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 48% · +4.6±11.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Pablo Cuevas wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 59% · +12.4±12.8 vs own baseline · +26.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 56% · +8.5±12.8 vs own baseline · +18.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 51% · +3.5±12.0 vs own baseline · +6.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 51% · +3.6±12.9 vs own baseline · +7.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.0% · won 49% · +2.4±12.4 vs own baseline · +5.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by David Goffin (2/6)
  6. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 0.8% · won 49% · +2.4±13.0 vs own baseline · +0.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.8195
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+1.4134
BH to their backhand · rally+0.6183
FH to their backhand · serve +1−0.3133
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.3205

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−1.9202
BH to their backhand · rally−1.6166
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.0143
T 1st serve · ad court−0.5131
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.3200

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

T serves · deuce55%
Forehand share61%
Wide serves · ad57%
Run-around forehands28%
Through the middle28%
Deep returns30%
1st serve in62%
Avg rally length3.9
Point-ending shots23.1%
Backhand slice18%
Unforced errors / shot9.5%
Serve & volley2%
Chipped returns9%
Drop shots / shot0.7%
T serves · ad32%
Points at net5%
Wide serves · deuce36%
FH down the line25%
BH down the line13%

Plays most like

  1. Daniel Elahi Galan 2020–2025 plan v
  2. Thiago Monteiro 2019–2026 plan v
  3. Cristian Garin 2018–2025 plan v
  4. Cameron Norrie 2015–2026 plan v
  5. Juncheng Shang 2024–2026 plan v
  6. Nicolas Massu 2000–2009 plan v
  7. Albert Ramos 2014–2025 plan v
  8. Gael Monfils 2005–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  2. Carlos Moya 1997–2007
  3. Jim Courier 1989–1999

Charted matches