Nottingham · SF · Grass · 26 Jun 2015
Sam Querrey v Alexandr Dolgopolov
105–95 in points · Sam Querrey won
Why it went the way it did
Sam Querrey won 5.0 more points than Alexandr Dolgopolov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexandr Dolgopolov's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.1, slice shot selection −2.3, net execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sam Querrey | Alexandr Dolgopolov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.2 | +4.5 | +4.4 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.5 | +0.8 | −0.2 | +1.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.2 | −0.6 | +1.8 | +0.3 | +2.0 | −5.1 | −2.8 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.2 | −1.9 | −1.2 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +2.5 | +3.4 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.6 | −1.9 | −3.4 | +0.1 | −2.3 | +0.1 | −2.1 |
| Net | +0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −1.5 | −1.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | −2.0 | −2.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +2.2 | +1.1 | −1.3 | +2.0 | +1.2 | +0.6 | −4.8 | −3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Sam Querrey | Alexandr Dolgopolov | Net, Sam | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.3 | +1.4 | −2.7 | |
| 2 | +0.7 | −4.8 | +5.4 | |
| 3 | +2.6 | +0.3 | +2.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sam Querrey serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 77% | 10% 100% | 48% 53% |
| 2 | 57% 76% | 7% 0% | 37% 55% |
| 3 | 62% 74% | 3% 100% | 35% 69% |
Set to set +0.97 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.96 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexandr Dolgopolov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% 79% | 4% 100% | 26% 71% |
| 2 | 76% 59% | 3% 0% | 21% 25% |
| 3 | 72% 69% | – | 28% 60% |
Set to set +0.05 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sam Querrey
4.5 points left on the table across 249 shots 1.82 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH inside-out + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts
Alexandr Dolgopolov
5.8 points left on the table across 234 shots 2.50 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts