US Open · F · Hard · 12 Sep 2015
Roberta Vinci v Flavia Pennetta
67–81 in points · Flavia Pennetta won
Why it went the way it did
Flavia Pennetta won 6.9 more points than Roberta Vinci relative to what the serve alone predicted. Roberta Vinci's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −11.9, return shot selection −3.0, serve 1st execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roberta Vinci | Flavia Pennetta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.8 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +1.9 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −3.0 | +1.0 | −2.0 | −0.6 | +0.8 | −2.2 | −2.1 |
| Forehand | −1.2 | +3.7 | −0.9 | +1.7 | −2.8 | +1.3 | +1.6 | +0.1 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.7 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −0.4 | −2.4 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −11.9 | −0.1 | −11.9 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.8 | −2.2 |
| Net | −0.6 | +1.2 | +0.1 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −0.8 |
| All shots | −1.2 | −9.8 | −0.2 | −11.2 | −3.8 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −4.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Roberta Vinci | Flavia Pennetta | Net, Roberta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.3 | −6.5 | −1.8 | |
| 2 | −2.9 | +2.1 | −5.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roberta Vinci serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 54% | 2% 100% | 52% 67% |
| 2 | 38% 50% | 19% 0% | 43% 33% |
Set to set +0.18 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Flavia Pennetta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 78% | 11% 80% | 40% 47% |
| 2 | 54% 60% | 14% 50% | 32% 56% |
Set to set +2.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roberta Vinci
14.5 points left on the table across 383 shots 3.78 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×17; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.02 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×17; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.89 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH down the line rates higher · 0.57 pts
Flavia Pennetta
13.9 points left on the table across 384 shots 3.61 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH down the line rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit BH through the middle ×10; BH down the line rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×21; BH down the line rates higher · 0.57 pts