Monte Carlo Masters · QF · Clay · 15 Apr 2016
Jo Wilfried Tsonga v Roger Federer
97–94 in points · Jo Wilfried Tsonga won
Why it went the way it did
Roger Federer won 1.3 more points than Jo Wilfried Tsonga relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jo Wilfried Tsonga's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.2, forehand execution −3.4, return execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | Roger Federer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.9 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −2.2 | −2.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.6 | −2.1 | −2.4 | +0.6 | −0.6 | −4.6 | −4.7 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +3.7 | −3.4 | +1.2 | +0.4 | +4.3 | −4.4 | +0.4 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.9 | −4.2 | −3.1 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +2.0 | +3.1 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.5 | −0.2 | −1.6 | +0.3 | −1.3 | −0.5 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +2.3 | +1.7 | −11.2 | −7.2 | +1.4 | +3.7 | −11.1 | −5.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | Roger Federer | Net, Jo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.4 | +1.4 | −4.8 | |
| 2 | +0.2 | −4.7 | +4.9 | |
| 3 | −4.0 | −2.7 | −1.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 35% | 11% 75% | 45% 59% |
| 2 | 68% 59% | 16% 75% | 16% 75% |
| 3 | 52% 70% | 14% 67% | 34% 60% |
Set to set −1.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.94 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Roger Federer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 46% | 11% 67% | 41% 82% |
| 2 | 43% 58% | 25% 43% | 32% 33% |
| 3 | 52% 60% | 7% 100% | 41% 83% |
Set to set −1.85 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.99 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga
6.0 points left on the table across 292 shots 2.06 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Roger Federer
6.8 points left on the table across 295 shots 2.29 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts