Stuttgart · R32 · Grass · 7 Jun 2016
Viktor Troicki v Florian Mayer
53–68 in points · Florian Mayer won
Why it went the way it did
Florian Mayer won 7.7 more points than Viktor Troicki relative to what the serve alone predicted. Viktor Troicki's biggest leaks: return execution −4.3, slice shot selection −2.1, slice execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Viktor Troicki | Florian Mayer | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.3 | −4.3 | −3.9 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −1.3 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | −1.0 | +0.9 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +0.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.1 | −1.9 | −3.9 | +0.4 | −2.7 | +1.0 | −1.3 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.8 | −1.0 | −0.5 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.6 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| All shots | +0.3 | −1.9 | −7.2 | −8.8 | −0.8 | −2.4 | +2.0 | −1.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Viktor Troicki | Florian Mayer | Net, Viktor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.0 | −0.4 | −3.6 | |
| 2 | −4.8 | −0.8 | −4.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Viktor Troicki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 73% | 17% 25% | 35% 38% |
| 2 | 26% 60% | 29% 64% | 45% 82% |
Within sets −0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Florian Mayer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 67% | 28% 71% | 36% 67% |
| 2 | 37% 92% | 34% 75% | 29% 80% |
Within sets −0.92 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Viktor Troicki
4.6 points left on the table across 153 shots 2.99 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH inside-out ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.19 pts
Florian Mayer
4.8 points left on the table across 137 shots 3.49 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts