RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 11 charted matches · 2009–2021

Viktor Troicki

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 59.4% ±3.4 raw 54.4% · tour 63.4% · 717 points
Return points won 34.6% ±3.3 raw 31.8% · tour 36.6% · 660 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.13 ±0.20 better than 24% of ATP · raw −0.13
Shot selection −0.05 ±0.46 better than 47% of ATP · raw −0.05
Execution −0.81 ±1.09 better than 32% of ATP · raw −0.75
Tactical adaptability +0.04 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed +0.09 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.48 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 65% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,564 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Viktor Troicki goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 222 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 23% 39.3%±9.5 51.5%
FH crosscourt 19% 39.6%±10.2 52.7%
FH through the middle 18% 46.4%±10.7 47.0%
BH through the middle 17% 40.3%±10.6 46.8%
BH crosscourt 15% 38.6%±10.9 49.1%
BH down the line 5% 37.6%±14.3 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 222 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 53% 37.3%±6.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 34.4%±9.2 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 33.8%±10.6 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 167 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 34% 41.2%±9.3 41.5%
FH crosscourt 33% 37.8%±9.2 46.6%
FH down the line 24% 33.2%±10.0 44.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 137 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 36% 46.2%±9.8 46.9%
FH down the line 34% 36.3%±9.7 44.8%
FH through the middle 20% 40.2%±11.6 41.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Viktor Troicki's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 87 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 38% 38% 72% / 73%
Body 15% 10% 60% / 63%
T 47% 52% 67% / 75%

353 normal · 21 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 33% ▼ 69% / 73%
Body 14% 14% 56% / 63%
T 36% 53% ▲ 67% / 72%

277 normal · 66 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide38% 58.6%±6.2 n=143 51% ▲
Body15% 50.0%±8.9 n=55 2% ▼
T47% 54.8%±5.7 n=176 47%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.27).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 53.5%±5.9 n=161 47%
Body14% 53.6%±9.3 n=48 1% ▼
T39% 53.0%±6.4 n=134 52% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.99).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.45 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.4±6.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (241 repeats, 454 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 35 32% −4.5±9.6
1stAd courtT 79 32% +4.5±7.4
1stAd courtWide 77 21% −6.5±6.4
1stDeuce courtBody 32 34% −2.8±9.9
1stDeuce courtT 79 23% −1.7±6.7
1stDeuce courtWide 110 23% −4.2±5.8
2ndAd courtBody 51 48% −1.5±9.1
2ndAd courtT 21 51% +1.3±11.5
2ndAd courtWide 46 47% −1.6±9.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 58 46% −2.8±8.7
2ndDeuce courtT 55 39% −11.0±8.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 17 46% −2.5±12.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Viktor Troicki's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 6.0% · won 45% · −17.3±11.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 10.2% · won 34% · +0.7±11.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 10.2% · won 32% · −1.3±11.1 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 42% · +5.7±10.1 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.7% · won 40% · +3.6±9.2 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 3.1% · won 41% · +4.7±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.9% · won 40% · +3.2±10.1 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 4.3% · won 37% · +0.8±10.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Viktor Troicki wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 43% · +5.3±12.2 vs own baseline · +3.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Thiago Seyboth Wild (5/8)
  2. BH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.8% · won 44% · +5.7±12.9 vs own baseline · +6.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Grigor Dimitrov (6/10)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 42% · +3.5±10.5 vs own baseline · −4.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gilles Simon (6/16), Grigor Dimitrov (3/6)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 41% · +3.1±12.1 vs own baseline · −8.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gilles Simon (4/7)
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 41% · +3.2±12.8 vs own baseline · +1.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Grigor Dimitrov (3/6)
  6. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.9% · won 41% · +2.7±12.3 vs own baseline · +2.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · rally+2.2151
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.1165
Wide 1st serve · deuce court±0.0135
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.3149
T 1st serve · ad court−0.4125

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−2.5291
FH to the middle · rally−2.5143
BH to the middle · rally−1.3156
BH to their backhand · rally−1.2191
FH to their backhand · rally−0.9209

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

FH down the line36%
Through the middle28%
Avg rally length4.4
Unforced errors / shot11.3%
Points at net14%
Deep returns29%
T serves · deuce47%
BH down the line22%
T serves · ad39%
Serve & volley5%
1st serve in60%
Chipped returns11%
Drop shots / shot1.0%
Wide serves · ad47%
Point-ending shots21.1%
Wide serves · deuce38%
Forehand share49%
Backhand slice8%
Run-around forehands6%

Plays most like

  1. Tomas Machac 2020–2026 plan v
  2. Denis Kudla 2014–2021 plan v
  3. Janko Tipsarevic 2007–2019 plan v
  4. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014 plan v
  5. Kei Nishikori 2011–2025 plan v
  6. Taro Daniel 2014–2024 plan v
  7. Benjamin Bonzi 2021–2025 plan v
  8. Alexandre Muller 2023–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Michael Chang 1989–1998
  2. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002
  3. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001

Charted matches