Doha · R16 · Hard · 4 Jan 2017
Jo Wilfried Tsonga v Dustin Brown
54–29 in points · Jo Wilfried Tsonga won
Why it went the way it did
Jo Wilfried Tsonga won 13.2 more points than Dustin Brown relative to what the serve alone predicted. Dustin Brown's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.8, slice execution −1.1, backhand execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | Dustin Brown | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | +3.1 | +2.9 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.2 | −1.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.3 | +1.2 | +3.0 | +0.3 | +1.3 | −3.8 | −2.2 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −1.1 | −0.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.2 | +1.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −1.1 | −1.6 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +1.4 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +0.9 | +1.2 | +5.1 | +7.2 | +0.6 | +1.1 | −7.8 | −6.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | Dustin Brown | Net, Jo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.5 | −3.3 | +6.8 | |
| 2 | +3.7 | −2.8 | +6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 90% | 20% 75% | 30% 83% |
| 2 | 63% 92% | 11% 0% | 26% 100% |
Within sets −1.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dustin Brown serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% 44% | 13% 100% | 27% 25% |
| 2 | 34% 60% | 28% 50% | 38% 55% |
Within sets +0.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga
2.4 points left on the table across 108 shots 2.21 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
Dustin Brown
2.1 points left on the table across 101 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts