RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 16 charted matches · 2014–2019

Dustin Brown

Archetype: Serve-and-volleyer · Net rusher (6)

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.7% ±2.9 raw 65.0% · tour 63.4% · 1,207 points
Return points won 37.3% ±3.0 raw 35.7% · tour 36.6% · 1,167 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.09 ±0.13 better than 79% of ATP · raw +0.09
Shot selection +1.24 ±0.39 better than 99% of ATP · raw +1.25
Execution −1.49 ±0.96 better than 9% of ATP · raw −1.27
Tactical adaptability −0.01 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 14 matches
Adaptation speed +0.07 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 3.41 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 9% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,675 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Dustin Brown goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 115 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 25% 44.1%±11.7 43.0%
BH crosscourt 23% 47.6%±12.0 46.9%
BH down the line 19% 47.2%±12.7 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 17% 38.9%±12.8 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 11% 25.8%±12.5 32.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 108 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 52% 33.3%±8.9 46.6%
FH drop shot down the line 14% 48.3%±13.9 49.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 102 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 31% 43.3%±11.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 29% 37.5%±11.3 43.7%
BH down the line 23% 51.8%±12.5 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 55.0%±14.9 42.5%

Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net

position worth 61% to the average player · 88 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH volley crosscourt 39% 56.9%±11.1 68.7%
FH volley down the line 31% 59.1%±11.8 63.8%
BH volley crosscourt 14% 64.3%±13.9 62.9%
BH volley through the middle 11% 55.4%±14.9 43.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −5 How much less varied Dustin Brown's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 97 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 55% ▲ 71% / 73%
Body 10% 5% 61% / 63%
T 51% 40% ▼ 77% / 75%

599 normal · 20 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 47% 73% / 73%
Body 8% 14% 66% / 63%
T 44% 39% 72% / 72%

495 normal · 77 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide40% 65.7%±4.7 n=246 36% ▼
Body10% 63.6%±8.3 n=60 0% ▼
T51% 68.7%±4.1 n=313 64% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.48).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 61.7%±4.6 n=274 44% ▼
Body9% 63.2%±8.8 n=52 0% ▼
T43% 63.4%±4.8 n=246 56% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.89).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.55 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +3.1±4.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (490 repeats, 669 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 57 31% −5.8±8.2
1stAd courtT 117 30% +2.2±6.2
1stAd courtWide 182 28% +0.7±5.1
1stDeuce courtBody 68 39% +2.1±8.1
1stDeuce courtT 184 25% −0.5±4.8
1stDeuce courtWide 166 27% −0.1±5.2
2ndAd courtBody 65 53% +4.1±8.4
2ndAd courtT 48 56% +6.9±9.2
2ndAd courtWide 88 49% +0.4±7.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 82 51% +1.6±7.8
2ndDeuce courtT 63 49% −0.3±8.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 35 47% −1.3±10.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Dustin Brown's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH volley down the line used 3.6% · won 76% · −3.0±9.5 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH volley down the line used 3.0% · won 74% · −5.0±10.1 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH volley crosscourt used 3.3% · won 69% · −9.6±10.4 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH volley crosscourt used 3.3% · won 69% · −9.6±10.4 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH volley crosscourt used 3.1% · won 67% · −12.1±10.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 7.8% · won 45% · +13.0±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.0% · won 37% · +5.3±10.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 6.3% · won 38% · +5.7±11.1 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 6.3% · won 24% · −7.7±10.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. Not enough data

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.5274
T 1st serve · deuce court+1.3313
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.9246
BH to the middle · return+0.4191
BH to their backhand · return−0.3124

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−1.9135
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.4223
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.7291
FH to their backhand · serve +1−0.6137
FH to the middle · return−0.1170

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Drop shots / shot7.8%
Points at net28%
Point-ending shots38.6%
BH down the line35%
Serve & volley49%
Deep returns35%
Unforced errors / shot12.0%
1st serve in65%
T serves · deuce51%
Chipped returns23%
T serves · ad43%
Backhand slice25%
Forehand share54%
Run-around forehands17%
Wide serves · ad48%
Through the middle23%
Wide serves · deuce40%
Avg rally length2.9
FH down the line23%

Plays most like

  1. Alexander Bublik 2017–2026 plan v
  2. Jerzy Janowicz 2012–2020 plan v
  3. Pierre Hugues Herbert 2014–2025 plan v
  4. Gilles Muller 2005–2017 plan v
  5. Martin Klizan 2014–2019 plan v
  6. Yannick Hanfmann 2021–2025 plan v
  7. Fabian Marozsan 2021–2026 plan v
  8. Sergiy Stakhovsky 2010–2022 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Goran Ivanisevic 1990–2001
  2. David Wheaton 1990–1994
  3. Todd Martin 1992–2001

Charted matches