Marseille · F · Hard · 26 Feb 2017
Lucas Pouille v Jo Wilfried Tsonga
43–61 in points · Jo Wilfried Tsonga won
Why it went the way it did
Jo Wilfried Tsonga won 10.7 more points than Lucas Pouille relative to what the serve alone predicted. Lucas Pouille's biggest leaks: return execution −3.8, serve 1st execution −1.3, backhand execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lucas Pouille | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.3 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.6 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.1 | −3.8 | −3.9 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.2 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +2.0 | −0.7 | +1.4 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +2.3 | +4.0 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +3.1 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.3 | −0.8 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −1.7 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.8 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.7 | +0.2 | −0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.9 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +1.1 | −5.8 | −4.5 | +0.9 | −1.1 | +6.5 | +6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Lucas Pouille | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | Net, Lucas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.7 | +3.9 | −4.5 | |
| 2 | −3.8 | +2.4 | −6.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lucas Pouille serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 57% | 22% 86% | 34% 55% |
| 2 | 38% 80% | 4% 100% | 58% 53% |
Set to set −1.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.94 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jo Wilfried Tsonga serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 79% | 12% 67% | 32% 88% |
| 2 | 38% 88% | 5% 100% | 57% 100% |
Within sets +0.80 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lucas Pouille
3.3 points left on the table across 154 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Jo Wilfried Tsonga
2.9 points left on the table across 152 shots 1.92 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts