RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 32 charted matches · 2015–2024

Lucas Pouille

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.9% ±2.6 raw 62.1% · tour 63.4% · 2,572 points
Return points won 36.7% ±2.6 raw 32.4% · tour 36.6% · 2,429 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.02 ±0.08 better than 52% of ATP · raw −0.02
Shot selection +0.05 ±0.16 better than 60% of ATP · raw +0.05
Execution −0.99 ±0.48 better than 26% of ATP · raw −1.05
Tactical adaptability −0.20 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 32 matches
Adaptation speed −0.03 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.56 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 54% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 12,131 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Lucas Pouille goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 740 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 32% 43.7%±5.1 47.6%
BH through the middle 19% 38.5%±6.3 43.7%
BH down the line 14% 47.7%±7.5 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 44.8%±8.8 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 7% 41.9%±9.4 35.1%
FH inside-out 7% 46.9%±9.9 51.8%
FH inside-in 5% 58.8%±10.8 54.7%
BH slice down the line 3% 44.1%±12.3 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 464 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 46.7%±5.5 46.6%
FH down the line 23% 46.8%±7.3 44.7%
FH through the middle 21% 34.7%±7.2 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 5% 16.9%±9.6 24.5%
FH down the line + approach 2% 72.9%±13.4 69.3%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 414 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 29% 45.0%±6.9 46.9%
BH through the middle 28% 43.4%±7.0 43.0%
BH down the line 11% 35.1%±9.7 44.2%
BH slice through the middle 10% 37.3%±10.0 32.6%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 42.9%±10.4 40.9%
BH slice down the line 5% 34.2%±12.3 33.3%
FH inside-in 3% 53.7%±14.3 53.6%
FH inside-out 3% 52.7%±14.8 51.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 407 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 25% 53.3%±7.4 52.7%
FH down the line 22% 53.0%±7.8 51.5%
FH through the middle 18% 40.2%±8.4 47.0%
BH crosscourt 9% 43.6%±10.8 49.1%
BH through the middle 9% 42.5%±11.0 46.8%
BH down the line 6% 47.1%±12.1 48.3%
FH crosscourt + approach 4% 63.1%±12.9 69.9%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Lucas Pouille's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 231 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 44% 71% / 73%
Body 10% 8% 65% / 63%
T 46% 47% 74% / 75%

1,271 normal · 59 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 52% 74% / 73%
Body 7% 8% 61% / 63%
T 48% 40% 74% / 72%

1,059 normal · 172 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 64.6%±3.2 n=583 56% ▲
Body10% 63.5%±6.2 n=133 0% ▼
T46% 64.2%±3.1 n=614 44% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.96).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 59.3%±3.3 n=572 40% ▼
Body7% 54.5%±7.7 n=82 0% ▼
T47% 61.2%±3.3 n=577 60% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.28).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.37 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.9±3.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (971 repeats, 1,526 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 53 37% +0.5±8.7
1stAd courtT 274 22% −6.5±3.9
1stAd courtWide 400 24% −3.5±3.4
1stDeuce courtBody 78 32% −4.3±7.4
1stDeuce courtT 385 22% −3.3±3.3
1stDeuce courtWide 336 23% −3.9±3.6
2ndAd courtBody 146 48% −1.8±6.2
2ndAd courtT 58 45% −4.1±8.7
2ndAd courtWide 217 48% ±0.0±5.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 187 46% −3.1±5.6
2ndDeuce courtT 220 51% +1.1±5.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 69 49% +0.8±8.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Lucas Pouille's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.9% · won 66% · −1.0±7.3 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 64% · −3.5±8.0 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.0% · won 63% · −4.5±9.3 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 61% · −5.9±9.1 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 60% · −7.5±9.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.9% · won 48% · +14.7±9.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 3.5% · won 46% · +13.2±8.7 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.2% · won 42% · +8.5±8.1 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH down the line, mid used 2.1% · won 44% · +10.4±10.2 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.8% · won 40% · +6.3±8.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 54% · +8.8±10.1 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.7% · won 50% · +5.5±7.9 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle used 1.4% · won 53% · +7.9±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.2% · won 49% · +4.5±8.3 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 49% · +3.8±9.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Lucas Pouille wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 57% · +8.4±12.0 vs own baseline · +13.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (4/6)
  2. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 58% · +9.4±12.9 vs own baseline · +16.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 55% · +6.7±12.6 vs own baseline · +15.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Rafael Nadal (4/7)
  4. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 53% · +5.0±11.7 vs own baseline · −0.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Rafael Nadal (3/6)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 52% · +3.4±10.1 vs own baseline · +4.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (3/7), Karen Khachanov (4/6)
  6. T serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 51% · +2.8±10.9 vs own baseline · −1.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 2nd serve · deuce court+1.4147
T 2nd serve · deuce court+1.3184
FH to their backhand · rally+0.9586
FH to their forehand · serve +1+0.1378
FH to their forehand · rally±0.0620

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · return−2.7148
FH to their forehand · serve +1−2.3354
BH to their backhand · serve +1−1.7159
FH to their backhand · serve +1−1.3480
FH to their backhand · return−1.3253

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.78, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.28, Jack Draper +1.24, Pedro Martinez +1.16, Casper Ruud +1.16

Favourable matchups

Fabian Marozsan +0.57, Miomir Kecmanovic +0.52, Pedro Martinez +0.51, Alexander Shevchenko +0.35, Roberto Carballes Baena +0.34

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Ugo Humbert, Karen Khachanov, Andy Murray, Joao Fonseca, Yoshihito Nishioka

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

T serves · ad47%
Unforced errors / shot12.2%
Point-ending shots28.9%
Drop shots / shot2.3%
Run-around forehands25%
Deep returns31%
Forehand share56%
Backhand slice27%
BH down the line22%
T serves · deuce46%
Wide serves · deuce44%
Points at net11%
Chipped returns14%
Serve & volley5%
FH down the line29%
Through the middle23%
Avg rally length3.7
Wide serves · ad46%
1st serve in56%

Plays most like

  1. Otto Virtanen 2022–2025 plan v
  2. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v
  3. Fabio Fognini 2012–2025 plan v
  4. Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
  5. Sam Querrey 2010–2022 plan v
  6. James Duckworth 2014–2026 plan v
  7. Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2007–2022 plan v
  8. Tomas Berdych 2005–2019 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005
  2. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002
  3. Marat Safin 1998–2009

Charted matches