RallyIQ

Chengdu · F · Hard · 25 Sep 2017

Denis Istomin v Marcos Baghdatis

19–13 in points · result not charted to completion

Why it went the way it did

Denis Istomin won 3.0 more points than Marcos Baghdatis relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marcos Baghdatis's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −1.3, slice shot selection −0.8.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotDenis IstominMarcos Baghdatis
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.5 +0.5 −0.2 ±0.0 −1.3 −1.5
Serve 2nd ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.2 +0.2 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.1
Return ±0.0 −0.1 −0.5 −0.7 −0.1 −0.2 +0.6 +0.3
Forehand +0.1 +0.4 +0.3 +0.8 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.5 −0.5
Backhand −0.1 −0.3 −0.5 −0.9 −0.1 ±0.0 −0.1 −0.2
Slice ±0.0 −0.4 −0.1 −0.5 −0.1 −0.8 ±0.0 −1.0
Net +0.2 +0.3 +0.4 +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 ±0.0 +0.5
Touch +0.1 −0.1 +0.3 +0.3 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0
All shots +0.3−0.4 +0.6+0.6 −0.3−0.7 −1.4−2.4

Set by set

SetDenis IstominMarcos BaghdatisNet, Denis
1+0.6−2.4 +3.0

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Denis Istomin

1.2 points left on the table across 59 shots 2.00 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
  2. Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.09 pts
  3. Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.07 pts
  4. Return +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.07 pts

Marcos Baghdatis

1.6 points left on the table across 56 shots 2.79 per 100 shots

  1. Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
  2. Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts
  3. Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.09 pts
  4. Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.08 pts