RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 11 charted matches · 2006–2021

Denis Istomin

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.5% ±3.1 raw 62.0% · tour 63.4% · 847 points
Return points won 35.5% ±3.2 raw 31.0% · tour 36.6% · 798 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.03 ±0.13 better than 67% of ATP · raw +0.03
Shot selection −0.41 ±0.13 better than 16% of ATP · raw −0.42
Execution +0.13 ±1.35 better than 73% of ATP · raw −0.03
Tactical adaptability −0.01 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed ±0.00 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.37 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 76% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,187 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Denis Istomin goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 262 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 32% 36.9%±7.7 43.7%
BH crosscourt 32% 43.8%±8.0 47.6%
BH down the line 21% 48.4%±9.5 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 30.3%±12.3 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 32.4%±13.2 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 218 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 44% 41.6%±7.5 46.6%
FH down the line 24% 43.8%±9.6 44.7%
FH through the middle 22% 43.9%±9.8 41.5%
FH slice crosscourt 5% 32.8%±13.9 30.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 163 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 22% 52.8%±11.0 52.7%
FH down the line 22% 50.5%±11.0 51.5%
FH through the middle 20% 35.4%±10.9 47.0%
BH through the middle 17% 43.3%±11.9 46.8%
BH down the line 12% 47.8%±13.2 48.3%
BH crosscourt 8% 41.9%±14.1 49.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 147 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 43.5%±9.4 48.0%
BH through the middle 20% 51.5%±11.6 43.8%
BH down the line 19% 40.2%±11.6 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 42.9%±13.6 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 9% 27.3%±12.8 35.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +5 How much less varied Denis Istomin's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 71 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 44% 74% / 73%
Body 10% 6% 57% / 63%
T 46% 50% 71% / 75%

422 normal · 18 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 53% 71% / 73%
Body 7% 6% 62% / 63%
T 45% 42% 70% / 72%

344 normal · 53 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 65.6%±5.2 n=192 57% ▲
Body10% 56.9%±9.5 n=44 0% ▼
T46% 61.9%±5.2 n=204 43% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.22).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide49% 59.0%±5.4 n=193 42% ▼
Body7% 61.0%±10.6 n=27 0% ▼
T45% 63.7%±5.5 n=177 58% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.55).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.60 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.6±2.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (307 repeats, 508 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 28 40% +2.8±10.6
1stAd courtT 96 25% −3.1±6.3
1stAd courtWide 110 19% −8.5±5.4
1stDeuce courtBody 29 37% +0.6±10.4
1stDeuce courtT 111 24% −0.6±6.0
1stDeuce courtWide 130 23% −4.0±5.5
2ndAd courtBody 63 49% −0.1±8.5
2ndAd courtT 26 42% −6.8±10.9
2ndAd courtWide 54 43% −4.9±8.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 60 43% −6.0±8.6
2ndDeuce courtT 46 51% +1.5±9.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 41 41% −6.6±9.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Denis Istomin's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 4.7% · won 60% · −8.0±10.4 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 58% · −10.4±11.4 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 3.2% · won 53% · −15.2±11.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 8.5% · won 35% · +4.2±10.9 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 52% · +8.7±11.5 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 4.9% · won 49% · +6.1±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 46% · +2.7±10.5 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH down the line used 3.0% · won 46% · +2.8±11.7 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 3.9% · won 44% · +1.5±10.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Denis Istomin wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 0.7% · won 50% · +6.0±13.0 vs own baseline · +11.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (7/10)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.2% · won 48% · +4.0±11.6 vs own baseline · +7.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (3/7), Roger Federer (3/6)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 46% · +2.4±10.9 vs own baseline · −0.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (4/9), Novak Djokovic (7/14)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 0.8% · won 46% · +2.3±12.8 vs own baseline · +2.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (4/10)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.3% · won 44% · +0.2±11.3 vs own baseline · −2.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (2/8), Novak Djokovic (5/12)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 43% · −0.5±12.0 vs own baseline · −5.5 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · deuce court+1.1204
BH to the middle · return+1.0153
T 1st serve · ad court+0.9177
FH to the middle · rally+0.6121
BH to their forehand · rally+0.5160

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · rally−1.8131
FH to the middle · rally−1.5140
FH to the middle · return−1.4139
FH to their forehand · rally−1.3282
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.9172

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Richard Gasquet, Nishesh Basavareddy, Arthur Cazaux, Jaume Munar, Daniel Evans

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

1st serve in67%
BH down the line28%
T serves · ad45%
Deep returns31%
FH down the line33%
Chipped returns18%
Avg rally length4.1
T serves · deuce46%
Through the middle25%
Wide serves · deuce44%
Wide serves · ad49%
Drop shots / shot1.1%
Serve & volley1%
Backhand slice14%
Unforced errors / shot8.9%
Forehand share50%
Points at net8%
Point-ending shots20.1%
Run-around forehands11%

Plays most like

  1. Learner Tien 2022–2026 plan v
  2. Novak Djokovic 2005–2026 plan v
  3. Karen Khachanov 2015–2026 plan v
  4. Jarkko Nieminen 2003–2014 plan v
  5. Alexander Zverev 2014–2026 plan v
  6. Benjamin Bonzi 2021–2025 plan v
  7. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014 plan v
  8. Laslo Djere 2018–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Andre Agassi 1988–2006
  2. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001
  3. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002

Charted matches