Wimbledon · R64 · Grass · 5 Jul 2018
Yulia Putintseva v Daria Kasatkina
45–59 in points · Daria Kasatkina won
Why it went the way it did
Daria Kasatkina won 7.0 more points than Yulia Putintseva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yulia Putintseva's biggest leaks: touch execution −1.4, slice shot selection −1.3, forehand execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Yulia Putintseva | Daria Kasatkina | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +0.6 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −0.9 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +2.6 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +1.9 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +2.0 | +3.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.3 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −1.8 | +1.7 | −0.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.1 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.4 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +0.2 | −2.7 | −2.3 | +0.4 | −0.8 | +5.1 | +4.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Yulia Putintseva | Daria Kasatkina | Net, Yulia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.2 | +1.4 | −3.6 | |
| 2 | −0.1 | +3.3 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Yulia Putintseva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 0% | 40% 50% | 20% 0% |
| 2 | 56% 43% | 36% 67% | 8% 0% |
Within sets −2.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daria Kasatkina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 60% | 22% 100% | 22% 100% |
| 2 | 23% 50% | 58% 67% | 19% 60% |
Within sets +5.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Yulia Putintseva
3.0 points left on the table across 134 shots 2.23 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
Daria Kasatkina
2.6 points left on the table across 123 shots 2.11 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts