Los Cabos · SF · Hard · 3 Aug 2018
Juan Martin Del Potro v Damir Dzumhur
77–58 in points · Juan Martin Del Potro won
Why it went the way it did
Juan Martin Del Potro won 10.8 more points than Damir Dzumhur relative to what the serve alone predicted. Damir Dzumhur's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.1, serve 1st execution −2.3, return execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Juan Martin Del Potro | Damir Dzumhur | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.7 | +0.1 | +2.3 | +3.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −2.3 | −2.9 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.3 | +0.4 | +2.2 | −0.6 | +1.6 | −1.6 | −0.7 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.6 | +1.5 |
| Slice | +0.8 | −3.9 | +1.0 | −2.1 | −0.2 | −3.1 | −1.1 | −4.3 |
| Net | −0.5 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −1.1 | −0.2 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.7 | +0.8 | +0.2 |
| All shots | +1.8 | −2.4 | +2.5 | +1.9 | −1.1 | −2.1 | −5.8 | −8.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Juan Martin Del Potro | Damir Dzumhur | Net, Juan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.2 | −6.5 | +6.6 | |
| 2 | +1.7 | −2.5 | +4.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Juan Martin Del Potro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 92% | 4% 100% | 39% 56% |
| 2 | 48% 68% | 10% 75% | 43% 65% |
Within sets +1.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Damir Dzumhur serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 45% | 33% 50% | 21% 60% |
| 2 | 46% 55% | 17% 50% | 38% 67% |
Within sets −0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Juan Martin Del Potro
4.8 points left on the table across 247 shots 1.94 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Damir Dzumhur
6.3 points left on the table across 242 shots 2.61 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts