RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 12 charted matches · 2015–2023

Damir Dzumhur

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 60.8% ±3.4 raw 56.5% · tour 63.4% · 763 points
Return points won 38.9% ±3.4 raw 37.2% · tour 36.6% · 804 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.18 ±0.14 better than 92% of ATP · raw +0.18
Shot selection −0.55 ±0.34 better than 10% of ATP · raw −0.54
Execution −0.24 ±0.89 better than 55% of ATP · raw −0.19
Tactical adaptability +0.03 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 12 matches
Adaptation speed +0.04 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.37 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 77% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,562 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Damir Dzumhur goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 322 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 47.4%±6.6 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 17% 39.9%±9.4 42.5%
BH through the middle 16% 39.1%±9.5 43.7%
BH down the line 12% 45.3%±10.8 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 7% 38.7%±12.1 35.1%
BH slice down the line 4% 38.8%±14.2 37.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 238 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 43.6%±7.9 48.0%
BH slice crosscourt 19% 39.1%±10.0 42.1%
BH through the middle 18% 43.4%±10.2 43.8%
BH down the line 11% 41.9%±12.0 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 36.4%±13.8 35.1%
BH slice down the line 5% 34.9%±13.9 35.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 184 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 37% 40.9%±8.6 44.7%
FH crosscourt 27% 50.4%±9.8 46.6%
FH through the middle 23% 48.1%±10.4 41.5%
FH slice down the line 7% 28.5%±13.1 25.6%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 173 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 36% 47.5%±9.0 46.9%
BH through the middle 24% 42.0%±10.4 43.0%
BH slice crosscourt 18% 46.5%±11.4 40.9%
BH down the line 10% 48.2%±13.5 44.2%
BH slice through the middle 6% 27.5%±13.2 32.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −3 How much less varied Damir Dzumhur's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 85 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 46% 73% / 73%
Body 13% 4% ▼ 57% / 63%
T 38% 50% ▲ 61% / 75%

379 normal · 24 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 62% 52% ▼ 60% / 73%
Body 5% 8% 65% / 63%
T 32% 39% 64% / 72%

298 normal · 61 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide49% 61.9%±5.3 n=198 62% ▲
Body12% 56.1%±9.1 n=50 0% ▼
T38% 54.2%±6.0 n=155 38%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.17).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide61% 54.6%±5.2 n=218 54% ▼
Body6% 58.1%±11.4 n=21 0% ▼
T33% 53.5%±6.7 n=120 46% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.65).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.46 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.4±6.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (320 repeats, 418 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 25 31% −5.9±10.3
1stAd courtT 108 34% +6.3±6.7
1stAd courtWide 114 31% +3.4±6.3
1stDeuce courtBody 28 35% −2.2±10.3
1stDeuce courtT 103 26% +0.9±6.3
1stDeuce courtWide 135 35% +7.5±6.1
2ndAd courtBody 45 52% +2.4±9.5
2ndAd courtT 29 40% −9.0±10.5
2ndAd courtWide 68 39% −9.1±8.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 61 54% +4.5±8.6
2ndDeuce courtT 43 53% +3.6±9.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 44 42% −5.6±9.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Damir Dzumhur's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 5.9% · won 64% · +0.4±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 5.5% · won 62% · −1.0±11.0 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 4.8% · won 60% · −3.3±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line used 5.7% · won 54% · −9.6±11.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 11.1% · won 51% · +6.8±10.1 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.6% · won 50% · +5.2±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 7.0% · won 41% · −3.5±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 7.3% · won 40% · −4.3±11.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH slice crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 54% · +8.4±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 54% · +8.7±11.3 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 4.9% · won 51% · +5.6±10.1 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → BH slice crosscourt used 2.7% · won 49% · +3.9±11.7 vs own baseline
  5. BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 48% · +2.9±11.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Damir Dzumhur wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 0.7% · won 55% · +8.7±12.8 vs own baseline · +22.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.8% · won 51% · +4.9±12.4 vs own baseline · +13.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 48% · +1.4±10.2 vs own baseline · −0.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alex De Minaur (3/7), Stefanos Tsitsipas (6/11)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.0% · won 48% · +1.7±11.7 vs own baseline · +3.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gael Monfils (3/6)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 48% · +1.5±12.5 vs own baseline · +1.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mikhail Kukushkin (4/7)
  6. FH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 48% · +1.4±12.9 vs own baseline · +3.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · return+1.9125
FH to their backhand · rally+1.6256
BH to their backhand · rally+1.3314
FH to their forehand · rally+0.6155
BH to the middle · return+0.6154

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · return−1.8146
BH to the middle · rally−0.8150
FH to their forehand · serve +1−0.7160
BH to the middle · return−0.6139
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.1191

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Ugo Humbert, Miomir Kecmanovic, Casper Ruud, Zhizhen Zhang, Bernard Tomic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

FH down the line44%
Drop shots / shot3.8%
Wide serves · ad61%
Avg rally length4.8
Chipped returns29%
Wide serves · deuce49%
Backhand slice33%
Points at net15%
1st serve in63%
BH down the line22%
Deep returns29%
Serve & volley4%
Through the middle23%
Unforced errors / shot8.9%
Run-around forehands13%
T serves · ad33%
Point-ending shots19.4%
T serves · deuce38%
Forehand share40%

Plays most like

  1. Mikhail Youzhny 2002–2018 plan v
  2. Mikhail Kukushkin 2014–2022 plan v
  3. Bernard Tomic 2010–2025 plan v
  4. Alex Michelsen 2023–2026 plan v
  5. Richard Gasquet 2002–2025 plan v
  6. Jaume Munar 2018–2026 plan v
  7. Jarkko Nieminen 2003–2014 plan v
  8. Fabrice Santoro 1990–2008 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Fabrice Santoro 1990–2008
  2. Guillermo Coria 2002–2005
  3. Miloslav Mecir 1985–1990

Charted matches