Sophia Antipolis CH · F · Clay · 7 Apr 2019
Dustin Brown v Filip Krajinovic
81–71 in points · Dustin Brown won
Why it went the way it did
Dustin Brown won 4.5 more points than Filip Krajinovic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Filip Krajinovic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.8, net execution −2.0, serve 1st execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Dustin Brown | Filip Krajinovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | +2.1 | −1.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.4 | −0.1 | +4.1 | +3.6 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +2.4 | +3.0 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +3.6 | +1.4 | +5.2 | −0.1 | +2.5 | +2.6 | +4.9 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.5 | +1.3 | +1.7 | +0.2 | +0.8 | −0.5 | +0.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −3.3 | −0.1 | −3.2 | −0.2 | −2.8 | ±0.0 | −3.0 |
| Net | −0.3 | +1.0 | −2.2 | −1.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −2.1 |
| Touch | +0.2 | +1.2 | −1.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.6 |
| All shots | −0.2 | +5.2 | +2.8 | +7.8 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +2.9 | +3.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Dustin Brown | Filip Krajinovic | Net, Dustin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | |
| 2 | +7.5 | +3.3 | +4.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Dustin Brown serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 60% | 9% 67% | 34% 75% |
| 2 | 51% 55% | 7% 67% | 42% 61% |
Set to set +0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Filip Krajinovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 67% | 29% 33% | 29% 100% |
| 2 | 49% 54% | 2% 100% | 49% 46% |
Within sets +2.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Dustin Brown
8.3 points left on the table across 287 shots 2.90 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
Filip Krajinovic
7.9 points left on the table across 282 shots 2.80 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts