Wimbledon · R16 · Grass · 8 Jul 2019
Kei Nishikori v Mikhail Kukushkin
128–114 in points · Kei Nishikori won
Why it went the way it did
Kei Nishikori won 7.3 more points than Mikhail Kukushkin relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mikhail Kukushkin's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.0, slice execution −2.2, backhand execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kei Nishikori | Mikhail Kukushkin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.3 | −3.7 | −4.3 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Return | +0.9 | +0.2 | +3.5 | +4.5 | +0.8 | +0.4 | +1.1 | +2.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.4 | +2.1 | +3.7 | +0.4 | +1.6 | −1.0 | +0.9 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | −0.3 | +4.0 | +4.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −1.5 |
| Slice | +0.6 | −6.2 | ±0.0 | −5.7 | +0.3 | −3.0 | −2.2 | −4.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.6 | +0.5 | +0.2 |
| All shots | +2.2 | −5.5 | +7.4 | +4.1 | +2.0 | −1.9 | −3.4 | −3.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Kei Nishikori | Mikhail Kukushkin | Net, Kei | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.6 | +1.3 | +1.3 | |
| 2 | −3.3 | −2.8 | −0.5 | |
| 3 | +2.4 | −1.5 | +4.0 | |
| 4 | +2.3 | −0.3 | +2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kei Nishikori serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 67% | 18% 50% | 45% 73% |
| 2 | 55% 50% | 14% 67% | 32% 71% |
| 3 | 21% 67% | 11% 67% | 68% 79% |
| 4 | 43% 50% | 11% 50% | 46% 65% |
Set to set +0.57 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mikhail Kukushkin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 65% | 19% 60% | 15% 50% |
| 2 | 49% 63% | 3% 100% | 49% 63% |
| 3 | 52% 62% | 8% 0% | 40% 70% |
| 4 | 56% 39% | 6% 50% | 38% 58% |
Set to set −0.10 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kei Nishikori
7.4 points left on the table across 427 shots 1.74 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH down the line ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Mikhail Kukushkin
7.3 points left on the table across 437 shots 1.68 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×8; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts