Wimbledon · QF · Grass · 10 Jul 2019
Roger Federer v Kei Nishikori
138–106 in points · Roger Federer won
Why it went the way it did
Roger Federer won 21.0 more points than Kei Nishikori relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kei Nishikori's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −4.8, slice shot selection −4.5, backhand execution −4.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roger Federer | Kei Nishikori | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 | −4.8 | −5.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.3 |
| Return | +0.7 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +2.5 | +0.1 | −0.3 | +1.2 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +3.0 | +1.6 | +4.5 | −0.9 | +1.7 | −2.0 | −1.2 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +1.4 | +2.3 | +3.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −4.0 | −4.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.8 | −2.4 | −5.3 | ±0.0 | −4.5 | −1.2 | −5.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +0.5 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −0.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −0.9 |
| All shots | +0.3 | +2.4 | +3.4 | +6.1 | −1.2 | −3.8 | −9.9 | −14.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Roger Federer | Kei Nishikori | Net, Roger | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.1 | +2.1 | +0.1 | |
| 2 | +3.4 | −4.8 | +8.3 | |
| 3 | +1.2 | −4.9 | +6.2 | |
| 4 | −0.7 | −7.2 | +6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roger Federer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 79% | – | 56% 50% |
| 2 | 74% 93% | – | 26% 60% |
| 3 | 72% 76% | – | 28% 75% |
| 4 | 54% 79% | – | 46% 75% |
Set to set +2.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.41 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kei Nishikori serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% 62% | 24% 56% | 42% 69% |
| 2 | 53% 25% | 20% 33% | 27% 50% |
| 3 | 50% 55% | 20% 56% | 30% 69% |
| 4 | 45% 50% | 13% 80% | 43% 59% |
Set to set +0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roger Federer
10.8 points left on the table across 359 shots 2.99 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
Kei Nishikori
9.8 points left on the table across 340 shots 2.88 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts