ITF Dubai · F · Hard · 14 Dec 2019
Ana Bogdan v Daria Snigur
59–36 in points · Ana Bogdan won
Why it went the way it did
Ana Bogdan won 11.7 more points than Daria Snigur relative to what the serve alone predicted. Daria Snigur's biggest leaks: return execution −3.9, slice execution −1.3, serve 2nd execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ana Bogdan | Daria Snigur | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.5 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.1 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.7 | +2.7 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −3.9 | −3.6 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +0.8 | +3.2 | +3.7 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.9 | +2.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.3 | +2.1 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.3 | −1.4 | −2.9 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −1.3 | −1.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +0.5 | +6.0 | +6.6 | +0.6 | +0.2 | −5.9 | −5.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Ana Bogdan | Daria Snigur | Net, Ana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.7 | −1.5 | +6.2 | |
| 2 | +1.9 | −3.5 | +5.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ana Bogdan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 63% | 8% 100% | 58% 71% |
| 2 | 50% 64% | 9% 50% | 41% 89% |
Within sets −1.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daria Snigur serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 42% | 11% 33% | 46% 54% |
| 2 | 48% 40% | 14% 67% | 38% 50% |
Within sets −1.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ana Bogdan
5.0 points left on the table across 204 shots 2.46 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Daria Snigur
4.7 points left on the table across 208 shots 2.26 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts