Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 21 Jan 2020
Kateryna Bondarenko v Arina Rodionova
96–105 in points · Arina Rodionova won
Why it went the way it did
Arina Rodionova won 4.3 more points than Kateryna Bondarenko relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kateryna Bondarenko's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.1, net execution −4.5, backhand execution −3.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kateryna Bondarenko | Arina Rodionova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.8 | +2.9 | +3.8 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −1.7 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.9 | −5.1 | −2.0 | −0.8 | +1.9 | +5.1 | +6.3 |
| Backhand | +0.9 | +1.5 | −3.5 | −1.1 | −0.9 | +1.0 | +2.0 | +2.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −5.8 | +1.4 | −4.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | +1.2 | −4.5 | −3.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −3.5 | −0.1 | −3.7 |
| All shots | +2.0 | +5.8 | −11.8 | −4.0 | −1.9 | −7.9 | +10.1 | +0.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Kateryna Bondarenko | Arina Rodionova | Net, Kateryna | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.9 | −1.7 | +2.5 | |
| 2 | +0.6 | −1.1 | +1.8 | |
| 3 | −5.5 | +3.1 | −8.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kateryna Bondarenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 63% | 11% 50% | 36% 54% |
| 2 | 60% 46% | 6% 33% | 34% 75% |
| 3 | 56% 33% | – | 44% 14% |
Set to set +0.57 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Arina Rodionova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 42% | 26% 67% | 22% 40% |
| 2 | 50% 69% | 20% 46% | 30% 32% |
| 3 | 40% 67% | 27% 75% | 33% 100% |
Set to set −2.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.53 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kateryna Bondarenko
8.9 points left on the table across 405 shots 2.21 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
Arina Rodionova
12.2 points left on the table across 368 shots 3.33 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.45 pts