ATP Cup · RR · Hard · 5 Feb 2021
Nicolas Mahut v Dennis Novak
77–54 in points · Nicolas Mahut won
Why it went the way it did
Nicolas Mahut won 11.9 more points than Dennis Novak relative to what the serve alone predicted. Dennis Novak's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.4, slice shot selection −1.3, serve 1st execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nicolas Mahut | Dennis Novak | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.7 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −1.3 | +1.9 | +0.6 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.3 | −1.1 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +1.4 | +0.1 | +1.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +1.1 | +1.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −2.4 | −2.5 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −2.1 | +0.3 | −2.2 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −0.6 | −2.1 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.0 | −0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +1.5 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −1.3 |
| All shots | −0.1 | −2.3 | +5.9 | +3.5 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −6.4 | −8.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Nicolas Mahut | Dennis Novak | Net, Nicolas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.5 | −4.8 | +4.3 | |
| 2 | +3.9 | −3.7 | +7.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nicolas Mahut serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 79% | 12% 60% | 44% 68% |
| 2 | 38% 75% | 10% 50% | 52% 82% |
Set to set −0.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dennis Novak serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 67% | 31% 62% | 40% 59% |
| 2 | 44% 36% | 12% 33% | 44% 55% |
Set to set −0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.64 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nicolas Mahut
4.2 points left on the table across 164 shots 2.55 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Dennis Novak
4.5 points left on the table across 165 shots 2.71 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your forehand side hit FH lob down the line ×1; FH lob through the middle rates higher · 0.20 pts