Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 24 May 2022

Casper Ruud v Jo Wilfried Tsonga

162–134 in points · Casper Ruud won

Why it went the way it did

Casper Ruud won 15.1 more points than Jo Wilfried Tsonga relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jo Wilfried Tsonga's biggest leaks: forehand execution −9.6, slice shot selection −6.1, net execution −5.9.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

Shot	Casper Ruud				Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Shot	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total
Serve 1st	−0.7	−0.3	+0.2	−0.9	+0.1	+0.3	−1.7	−1.3
Serve 2nd	±0.0	±0.0	+2.0	+2.0	+0.1	±0.0	+0.6	+0.7
Return	−0.2	±0.0	−2.4	−2.6	+0.3	−2.2	+1.2	−0.7
Forehand	+0.1	+5.5	−1.4	+4.2	+0.7	+7.1	−9.6	−1.8
Backhand	+0.2	+0.1	+1.3	+1.6	+0.4	−0.3	−2.1	−2.1
Slice	−0.3	−4.5	−0.7	−5.5	+0.5	−6.1	−3.9	−9.6
Net	+0.1	+0.3	−0.7	−0.3	+1.2	+1.4	−5.9	−3.3
Touch	+0.1	−1.5	−0.6	−2.0	−0.2	±0.0	−0.6	−0.7
Other	±0.0	−0.1	−0.3	−0.5	±0.0	−0.2	−0.1	−0.3
All shots	−0.8	−0.5	−2.8	−4.0	+3.1	±0.0	−22.2	−19.1

Set by set

Set	Casper Ruud	Jo Wilfried Tsonga	Net, Casper
1	−0.1	−1.7	+1.6
2	−2.8	−7.7	+4.9
3	+0.3	−4.6	+4.9
4	−1.4	−5.1	+3.7

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Casper Ruud serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	41% 72%	23% 70%	36% 69%
2	42% 80%	22% 63%	36% 85%
3	31% 50%	38% 60%	31% 88%
4	49% 65%	17% 67%	34% 67%

Set to set −0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Jo Wilfried Tsonga serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	58% 69%	2% 100%	40% 61%
2	54% 71%	13% 60%	33% 54%
3	45% 46%	7% 50%	48% 50%
4	44% 67%	22% 22%	34% 64%

Set to set −1.22 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Casper Ruud

15.2 points left on the table across 516 shots 2.94 per 100 shots

Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts

Jo Wilfried Tsonga

12.6 points left on the table across 530 shots 2.39 per 100 shots

Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.82 pts
Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.78 pts
Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH drop shot through the middle + approach ×2; FH drop shot down the line + approach rates higher · 0.37 pts