US Open · R128 · Hard · 29 Aug 2022
Nuno Borges v Ben Shelton
191–176 in points · Nuno Borges won
Why it went the way it did
Nuno Borges won 9.0 more points than Ben Shelton relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ben Shelton's biggest leaks: forehand execution −8.4, return execution −8.2, slice shot selection −7.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nuno Borges | Ben Shelton | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.6 | −0.3 | −4.1 | −5.0 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| Return | −0.8 | −1.1 | −10.7 | −12.7 | −1.0 | −0.5 | −8.2 | −9.7 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +3.0 | −6.9 | −4.6 | +0.1 | +2.2 | −8.4 | −6.1 |
| Backhand | −0.7 | +0.3 | −1.1 | −1.4 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −3.4 | +0.7 | −3.0 | −1.1 | −7.8 | −1.6 | −10.5 |
| Net | +0.3 | +1.3 | +1.7 | +3.3 | −0.1 | +0.7 | −2.2 | −1.7 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.5 | −3.0 | ±0.0 | −3.4 |
| All shots | −2.8 | −1.2 | −20.2 | −24.2 | −3.9 | −8.3 | −21.0 | −33.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Nuno Borges | Ben Shelton | Net, Nuno | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.5 | −10.4 | +3.9 | |
| 2 | −6.3 | −1.1 | −5.2 | |
| 3 | −6.1 | −6.8 | +0.7 | |
| 4 | −3.3 | −7.0 | +3.8 | |
| 5 | −2.0 | −7.9 | +5.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nuno Borges serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 92% | 8% 100% | 59% 73% |
| 2 | 41% 77% | 28% 33% | 31% 50% |
| 3 | 40% 76% | 14% 33% | 45% 63% |
| 4 | 44% 76% | 10% 75% | 46% 72% |
| 5 | 36% 78% | 24% 83% | 40% 80% |
Set to set +1.46 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ben Shelton serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 86% | 12% 60% | 40% 53% |
| 2 | 59% 75% | 19% 80% | 22% 67% |
| 3 | 39% 75% | 20% 50% | 41% 53% |
| 4 | 49% 68% | 16% 63% | 35% 61% |
| 5 | 39% 27% | 32% 67% | 29% 88% |
Set to set −0.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nuno Borges
14.6 points left on the table across 550 shots 2.65 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
Ben Shelton
19.5 points left on the table across 561 shots 3.48 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.83 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts