RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 18 charted matches · 2021–2026

Nuno Borges

Archetype: Rallies through the middle · Crosscourt backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.8% ±2.8 raw 63.7% · tour 63.4% · 1,597 points
Return points won 37.4% ±3.0 raw 35.2% · tour 36.6% · 1,572 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.11 ±0.16 better than 30% of ATP · raw −0.10
Shot selection −0.15 ±0.22 better than 34% of ATP · raw −0.14
Execution −0.87 ±0.52 better than 29% of ATP · raw −0.69
Tactical adaptability +0.15 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 18 matches
Adaptation speed +0.19 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.55 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 55% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 7,949 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Nuno Borges goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 486 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 27% 44.9%±6.7 47.0%
FH crosscourt 20% 52.6%±7.6 52.7%
FH down the line 18% 52.2%±8.0 51.5%
BH through the middle 17% 51.3%±8.1 46.8%
BH down the line 8% 45.2%±10.7 48.3%
BH crosscourt 6% 42.8%±11.4 49.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 449 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 38% 42.8%±6.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 30% 41.9%±6.6 43.7%
BH down the line 14% 46.1%±9.0 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 41.1%±12.1 42.5%
FH inside-out 5% 47.2%±12.8 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 35.2%±12.9 35.1%
FH inside-in 2% 61.1%±14.4 54.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 345 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 44% 50.5%±6.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 21% 42.1%±8.5 41.5%
FH down the line 17% 48.7%±9.2 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 11% 18.5%±8.3 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 4% 47.6%±14.1 30.9%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 236 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 35% 45.9%±8.2 46.9%
BH through the middle 30% 31.8%±8.1 43.0%
BH down the line 13% 53.7%±11.6 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 44.6%±14.0 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 5% 29.7%±13.3 32.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Nuno Borges's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 126 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 43% 40% 74% / 73%
Body 9% 12% 63% / 63%
T 47% 48% 72% / 75%

811 normal · 25 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 55% ▲ 71% / 73%
Body 12% 12% 62% / 63%
T 43% 33% ▼ 65% / 72%

658 normal · 101 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 66.8%±3.9 n=361 56% ▲
Body10% 61.3%±7.6 n=80 0% ▼
T47% 63.7%±3.8 n=395 44% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.37).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 65.5%±4.0 n=354 60% ▲
Body12% 57.3%±7.4 n=90 0% ▼
T42% 61.1%±4.3 n=315 40% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.13).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.66 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.1±3.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (595 repeats, 964 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 54 27% −9.5±8.0
1stAd courtT 178 30% +2.0±5.2
1stAd courtWide 247 24% −3.3±4.2
1stDeuce courtBody 76 34% −2.7±7.6
1stDeuce courtT 203 21% −4.2±4.4
1stDeuce courtWide 231 25% −2.2±4.4
2ndAd courtBody 90 53% +3.8±7.5
2ndAd courtT 34 53% +3.5±10.3
2ndAd courtWide 153 51% +2.7±6.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 134 55% +6.3±6.4
2ndDeuce courtT 109 44% −5.9±6.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 63 55% +7.2±8.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Nuno Borges's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 68% · +0.7±8.6 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 62% · −6.1±10.4 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 2.6% · won 62% · −5.6±9.9 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 62% · −5.3±9.4 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 59% · −8.8±10.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 3.3% · won 53% · +11.8±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 3.0% · won 53% · +12.0±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 5.2% · won 49% · +7.8±9.3 vs own baseline
  4. vs body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.5% · won 51% · +9.4±11.4 vs own baseline
  5. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.6% · won 48% · +6.6±11.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.2% · won 53% · +5.6±8.2 vs own baseline
  2. FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 4.0% · won 53% · +5.1±9.0 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH down the line used 2.9% · won 53% · +5.7±9.9 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → BH down the line used 2.2% · won 54% · +6.3±10.8 vs own baseline
  5. BH down the line → FH down the line used 2.2% · won 54% · +6.3±10.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Nuno Borges wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.6% · won 58% · +7.9±11.4 vs own baseline · +20.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.6% · won 57% · +7.0±11.5 vs own baseline · +17.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Oleksandr Ovcharenko (4/6)
  3. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 58% · +8.4±12.5 vs own baseline · +11.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, deep → FH through the middle used 0.4% · won 57% · +7.3±12.7 vs own baseline · +25.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 0.4% · won 55% · +4.7±12.5 vs own baseline · +15.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH through the middle → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 55% · +4.7±12.5 vs own baseline · +9.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · serve +1+1.1171
Wide 2nd serve · ad court+0.9126
FH to the middle · return+0.9260
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.2395
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.1354

Most exposed to

Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.8385
BH to their forehand · rally−1.2205
FH to the middle · return−0.9282
FH to their forehand · serve +1−0.8201
BH to the middle · return +1−0.7137

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.10, Miomir Kecmanovic +0.90, Jack Draper +0.82, Pedro Martinez +0.71, Casper Ruud +0.69

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +0.55, Fabian Marozsan +0.52, Pedro Martinez +0.47, Roberto Bautista Agut +0.39, Roberto Carballes Baena +0.36

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Nicolas Jarry, Nick Kyrgios, Maxime Cressy

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Through the middle31%
1st serve in67%
Forehand share59%
Deep returns34%
Drop shots / shot2.3%
T serves · ad42%
T serves · deuce47%
Avg rally length4.0
BH down the line21%
Run-around forehands18%
Wide serves · deuce43%
Unforced errors / shot9.7%
Chipped returns14%
Point-ending shots22.7%
FH down the line29%
Serve & volley1%
Backhand slice14%
Wide serves · ad47%
Points at net8%

Plays most like

  1. Mackenzie Mcdonald 2015–2025 plan v
  2. Arthur Cazaux 2020–2025 plan v
  3. Alejandro Tabilo 2021–2026 plan v
  4. Zhizhen Zhang 2019–2026 plan v
  5. Miomir Kecmanovic 2019–2026 plan v
  6. Ben Shelton 2021–2026 plan v
  7. Filip Krajinovic 2017–2023 plan v
  8. Gael Monfils 2005–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014
  2. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  3. Robin Soderling 2004–2011

Charted matches