Naples CH · R32 · Hard · 18 Oct 2022
Taro Daniel v Pedro Martinez
62–50 in points · Taro Daniel won
Why it went the way it did
Taro Daniel won 6.6 more points than Pedro Martinez relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pedro Martinez's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −3.0, serve 2nd execution −2.3, slice shot selection −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Taro Daniel | Pedro Martinez | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −3.0 | −3.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +2.2 | +2.7 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +2.8 | +3.2 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +3.8 | +5.2 | +8.5 | +0.6 | +3.8 | +0.8 | +5.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.5 | +2.7 | +0.2 | +1.9 | +1.1 | +3.2 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.8 | −1.4 | −3.3 | +0.3 | −2.1 | +0.7 | −1.1 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.1 | +1.9 | +1.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.9 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.3 | +0.2 |
| All shots | −1.3 | +3.2 | +9.5 | +11.5 | +0.7 | +4.3 | −0.1 | +4.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Taro Daniel | Pedro Martinez | Net, Taro | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.3 | +2.7 | +3.6 | |
| 2 | +5.2 | +2.2 | +3.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Taro Daniel serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 64% | 12% 67% | 46% 75% |
| 2 | 43% 58% | 18% 100% | 39% 64% |
Within sets −0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pedro Martinez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 50% | 26% 57% | 37% 60% |
| 2 | 45% 50% | 23% 71% | 32% 60% |
Within sets +0.83 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Taro Daniel
8.8 points left on the table across 322 shots 2.72 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
Pedro Martinez
7.3 points left on the table across 324 shots 2.25 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts