Miami Masters · R64 · Hard · 25 Mar 2023
Ben Shelton v Adrian Mannarino
67–74 in points · Adrian Mannarino won
Why it went the way it did
Adrian Mannarino won 4.8 more points than Ben Shelton relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ben Shelton's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.5, return execution −2.2, touch shot selection −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ben Shelton | Adrian Mannarino | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +1.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Return | −0.4 | +0.6 | −2.2 | −1.9 | −0.1 | +1.1 | −1.4 | −0.4 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +2.4 | +1.4 | +3.7 | −0.5 | +2.3 | −0.9 | +0.9 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +2.2 | +3.1 |
| Slice | −0.7 | −3.5 | −0.2 | −4.5 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.8 |
| Net | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Touch | −0.4 | −1.5 | +0.2 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −1.9 | −1.2 | +2.5 | −0.6 | −0.7 | +3.7 | +1.3 | +4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Ben Shelton | Adrian Mannarino | Net, Ben | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.4 | −1.7 | −0.8 | |
| 2 | +2.1 | −1.4 | +3.5 | |
| 3 | −0.2 | +7.3 | −7.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ben Shelton serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 69% | 13% 100% | 33% 63% |
| 2 | 40% 70% | 20% 40% | 40% 90% |
| 3 | 46% 50% | 12% 67% | 42% 45% |
Set to set +1.17 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Adrian Mannarino serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66% 68% | 3% 0% | 31% 89% |
| 2 | 56% 50% | 6% 0% | 39% 71% |
| 3 | 68% 85% | 5% 100% | 26% 80% |
Set to set −0.31 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ben Shelton
11.6 points left on the table across 277 shots 4.18 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.50 pts
Adrian Mannarino
9.0 points left on the table across 286 shots 3.14 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.33 pts