RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 70 charted matches · 2012–2026

Adrian Mannarino

Archetype: Rallies through the middle · Crosscourt backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.1% ±2.5 raw 61.7% · tour 63.4% · 5,842 points
Return points won 38.8% ±2.6 raw 34.9% · tour 36.6% · 5,714 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.06 ±0.06 better than 41% of ATP · raw −0.06
Shot selection +0.11 ±0.09 better than 66% of ATP · raw +0.11
Execution −0.06 ±0.24 better than 66% of ATP · raw −0.03
Tactical adaptability +0.05 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 68 matches
Adaptation speed −0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.42 ±0.39 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 5,559 shots · better than 20% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.66 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 42% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 32,021 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Adrian Mannarino goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,727 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 55% 46.8%±2.6 46.6%
FH through the middle 28% 42.9%±3.6 41.5%
FH down the line 9% 43.9%±6.1 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 2% 20.9%±8.9 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 1% 27.1%±10.9 30.9%
BH inside-in 1% 45.4%±13.6 46.7%
BH inside-out 1% 45.7%±14.3 45.4%
BH through the middle 1% 33.2%±13.7 43.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 1,654 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 29% 46.5%±3.7 52.7%
FH through the middle 20% 51.0%±4.4 47.0%
BH crosscourt 16% 51.5%±4.9 49.1%
BH through the middle 13% 50.4%±5.3 46.8%
BH down the line 9% 49.2%±6.4 48.3%
FH down the line 8% 49.2%±6.6 51.5%
FH crosscourt + approach 2% 71.7%±10.9 69.9%
BH down the line + approach 1% 62.5%±12.3 66.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,591 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 56% 49.1%±2.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 43.7%±4.2 43.7%
BH down the line 10% 40.3%±6.0 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 3% 27.7%±9.1 35.1%
BH down the line + approach 3% 77.1%±8.9 66.2%
BH slice down the line 2% 30.7%±11.1 37.1%
FH inside-in 1% 60.3%±13.1 54.7%
FH through the middle 1% 51.5%±13.9 45.2%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,542 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 57% 48.5%±2.7 46.9%
FH through the middle 25% 44.6%±4.0 41.4%
FH down the line 12% 43.0%±5.8 44.8%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 30.3%±11.0 31.2%
FH slice through the middle 2% 19.7%±9.7 25.4%
BH inside-in 1% 42.2%±13.5 46.0%
BH inside-out 1% 44.3%±14.9 46.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Adrian Mannarino's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 557 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 51% 72% / 73%
Body 8% 4% 61% / 63%
T 42% 46% 65% / 75%

2,920 normal · 134 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 62% 51% ▼ 70% / 73%
Body 7% 7% 55% / 63%
T 31% 42% ▲ 74% / 72%

2,359 normal · 423 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 61.9%±2.0 n=1,523 63% ▲
Body8% 58.7%±4.8 n=253 0% ▼
T42% 60.5%±2.2 n=1,278 37% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.45).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide60% 63.4%±1.9 n=1,675 54% ▼
Body7% 50.3%±5.4 n=203 0% ▼
T32% 63.8%±2.6 n=904 46% ▲

Off equilibrium (p < 0.001): serve T more. Gap 1.2 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.48 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.2±2.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (2,712 repeats, 2,984 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 138 37% ±0.0±6.1
1stAd courtT 707 27% −1.4±2.7
1stAd courtWide 790 25% −2.7±2.5
1stDeuce courtBody 176 41% +4.1±5.6
1stDeuce courtT 718 23% −1.6±2.5
1stDeuce courtWide 978 22% −5.1±2.1
2ndAd courtBody 410 50% +1.0±3.9
2ndAd courtT 292 47% −2.5±4.6
2ndAd courtWide 368 50% +1.5±4.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 493 52% +2.7±3.6
2ndDeuce courtT 291 46% −3.9±4.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 345 54% +5.9±4.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Adrian Mannarino's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 59% · −5.5±4.8 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.7% · won 57% · −8.0±6.2 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 55% · −9.2±6.5 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 54% · −11.0±6.4 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 2.8% · won 54% · −10.8±6.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.7% · won 51% · +12.7±6.8 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 3.4% · won 50% · +11.0±6.1 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.8% · won 51% · +11.9±6.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, deep used 3.3% · won 50% · +10.7±6.2 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.4% · won 48% · +9.5±7.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 53% · +5.9±5.1 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 6.1% · won 50% · +3.4±3.5 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 2.1% · won 51% · +4.2±5.9 vs own baseline
  4. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 50% · +3.2±5.1 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 4.4% · won 48% · +1.7±4.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Adrian Mannarino wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH down the line + approach used 0.3% · won 69% · +21.1±8.6 vs own baseline · +8.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by David Goffin (6/7), Hubert Hurkacz (10/12)
  2. BH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt + approach used 0.1% · won 70% · +21.4±11.1 vs own baseline · +20.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH through the middle → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 57% · +8.3±7.1 vs own baseline · +7.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alex De Minaur (3/8), Daniil Medvedev (3/6)
  4. FH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.2% · won 60% · +11.5±10.2 vs own baseline · +13.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 54% · +5.2±6.0 vs own baseline · +1.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (3/10), Alex De Minaur (3/8)
  6. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.4% · won 56% · +7.8±8.9 vs own baseline · +13.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · return +1+2.9539
BH to the middle · serve +1+2.5428
BH to the middle · return+2.31,100
BH to their forehand · serve +1+2.1704
T 2nd serve · deuce court+1.4625

Most exposed to

BH slice to their forehand · return +1−5.3168
FH slice to the middle · rally−4.0167
FH to their backhand · return−3.7436
BH slice to their forehand · rally−3.5547
BH to their forehand · serve +1−3.4302

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +2.89, Jack Draper +2.43, Miomir Kecmanovic +2.14, Yoshihito Nishioka +2.01, Daniel Evans +2.00

Favourable matchups

Pedro Martinez +1.46, Alexander Shevchenko +1.46, Fabian Marozsan +1.28, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.28, Roberto Bautista Agut +1.22

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Rafael Nadal, Casper Ruud, Andy Murray, Carlos Alcaraz, Grigor Dimitrov

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Wide serves · ad60%
Deep returns35%
Wide serves · deuce50%
Avg rally length4.5
Forehand share55%
Through the middle26%
1st serve in61%
BH down the line19%
Points at net10%
Serve & volley2%
Drop shots / shot1.0%
Unforced errors / shot9.0%
T serves · deuce42%
Chipped returns7%
Point-ending shots19.3%
Backhand slice9%
T serves · ad32%
Run-around forehands4%
FH down the line17%

Plays most like

  1. Jannik Sinner 2013–2026 plan v
  2. John Millman 2014–2024 plan v
  3. Thomaz Bellucci 2011–2023 plan v
  4. Ilya Ivashka 2018–2023 plan v
  5. Cameron Norrie 2015–2026 plan v
  6. Tennys Sandgren 2014–2021 plan v
  7. Taylor Fritz 2016–2026 plan v
  8. Cristian Garin 2018–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001
  2. Andre Agassi 1988–2006
  3. Andrei Medvedev 1992–2000

Charted matches