Marrakech · F · Clay · 9 Apr 2023
Roberto Carballes Baena v Alexandre Muller
106–102 in points · Roberto Carballes Baena won
Why it went the way it did
Roberto Carballes Baena won 3.9 more points than Alexandre Muller relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexandre Muller's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.4, forehand execution −2.3, backhand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roberto Carballes Baena | Alexandre Muller | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −3.1 | −3.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +3.0 | +3.0 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +6.2 | +2.1 | +7.9 | +0.5 | +4.8 | −2.3 | +3.0 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | +6.9 | +7.3 | +0.6 | +1.3 | −2.1 | −0.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.7 | −0.7 | −3.2 | +0.1 | −4.4 | −0.2 | −4.4 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +3.0 | +3.4 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.6 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −0.2 | +2.8 | +5.1 | +7.8 | +1.2 | +2.3 | +0.4 | +3.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Roberto Carballes Baena | Alexandre Muller | Net, Roberto | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.5 | +1.0 | −2.5 | |
| 2 | +1.4 | +1.5 | −0.2 | |
| 3 | +8.0 | +1.3 | +6.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roberto Carballes Baena serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% 76% | 12% 67% | 20% 40% |
| 2 | 55% 67% | 14% 71% | 31% 53% |
| 3 | 59% 77% | 18% 75% | 23% 80% |
Set to set −0.55 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.61 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexandre Muller serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% 78% | 10% 100% | 28% 63% |
| 2 | 54% 62% | 8% 100% | 38% 60% |
| 3 | 52% 52% | 7% 100% | 41% 50% |
Set to set −0.02 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roberto Carballes Baena
13.5 points left on the table across 523 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.73 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
Alexandre Muller
10.2 points left on the table across 541 shots 1.88 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×3; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts