RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 13 charted matches · 2023–2025

Alexandre Muller

Archetype: Grinder · Ad-court T server

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.0% ±3.0 raw 55.2% · tour 63.4% · 1,041 points
Return points won 34.2% ±3.0 raw 29.5% · tour 36.6% · 875 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.14 ±0.16 better than 20% of ATP · raw −0.15
Shot selection −0.44 ±0.31 better than 14% of ATP · raw −0.45
Execution −0.70 ±0.65 better than 36% of ATP · raw −0.89
Tactical adaptability −0.06 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 12 matches
Adaptation speed −0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.74 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 36% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,772 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Alexandre Muller goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 302 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 38.3%±6.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 31% 34.9%±7.3 43.7%
BH down the line 14% 40.8%±10.3 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 6% 29.8%±12.4 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 27.9%±12.7 42.5%
FH inside-out 4% 36.7%±14.2 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 210 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 49.4%±9.6 52.7%
FH down the line 20% 38.6%±10.1 51.5%
BH through the middle 16% 43.3%±11.1 46.8%
BH crosscourt 15% 52.6%±11.5 49.1%
FH through the middle 13% 42.5%±11.7 47.0%
BH down the line 7% 44.7%±13.8 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 203 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 28% 36.8%±9.0 46.6%
FH down the line 28% 34.1%±8.9 44.7%
FH through the middle 22% 38.9%±9.9 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 12% 24.2%±10.5 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 5% 30.6%±13.8 30.9%
FH slice down the line 5% 27.1%±13.3 25.6%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 177 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 42% 34.7%±8.1 48.0%
BH through the middle 27% 36.4%±9.6 43.8%
BH down the line 16% 40.2%±11.6 46.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +10 How much less varied Alexandre Muller's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 144 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 56% 65% / 73%
Body 13% 3% ▼ 55% / 63%
T 39% 41% 64% / 75%

506 normal · 32 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 44% 67% / 73%
Body 12% 7% 55% / 63%
T 42% 49% 63% / 72%

390 normal · 112 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide49% 58.0%±4.7 n=265 62% ▲
Body12% 50.2%±8.4 n=65 0% ▼
T39% 55.7%±5.3 n=208 38%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.28).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 56.8%±5.1 n=229 59% ▲
Body11% 53.6%±9.0 n=54 0% ▼
T44% 52.6%±5.2 n=219 41% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.56).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.41 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.8±5.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (393 repeats, 621 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 25 29% −7.7±10.1
1stAd courtT 90 25% −3.5±6.5
1stAd courtWide 140 21% −6.0±5.2
1stDeuce courtBody 34 38% +0.8±10.0
1stDeuce courtT 120 20% −4.7±5.4
1stDeuce courtWide 157 21% −6.2±4.9
2ndAd courtBody 56 42% −7.7±8.7
2ndAd courtT 28 55% +5.5±10.8
2ndAd courtWide 73 45% −3.2±8.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 45 45% −4.1±9.4
2ndDeuce courtT 57 49% −0.4±8.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 49 42% −5.8±9.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Alexandre Muller's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 58% · −2.0±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 57% · −2.5±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 56% · −3.3±11.2 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.5% · won 55% · −4.3±10.3 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 55% · −5.2±11.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 5.5% · won 32% · +2.3±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 8.8% · won 30% · +1.0±9.5 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 5.5% · won 30% · +0.3±10.7 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line used 5.5% · won 26% · −3.7±10.3 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 7.4% · won 22% · −6.9±9.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 42% · +5.1±9.8 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 3.0% · won 43% · +6.5±11.5 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 41% · +4.2±9.9 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → FH down the line used 3.7% · won 41% · +4.4±10.8 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 4.9% · won 40% · +3.3±9.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alexandre Muller wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 48% · +8.1±12.1 vs own baseline · +2.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 45% · +5.7±12.4 vs own baseline · −0.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roberto Carballes Baena (2/7), Casper Ruud (4/6)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.2% · won 43% · +3.9±11.0 vs own baseline · −1.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roberto Carballes Baena (2/6)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.7% · won 40% · +0.7±12.5 vs own baseline · −3.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 40% · +0.3±10.8 vs own baseline · −8.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roberto Carballes Baena (1/6), Sebastian Baez (4/6)
  6. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 40% · +0.2±12.7 vs own baseline · −6.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · serve +1+1.5146
FH to their backhand · rally+0.1218
BH to the middle · return−0.1201
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.4222
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.8254

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−2.8327
FH to the middle · return−2.2232
BH to the middle · return−1.5179
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.4184
T 1st serve · ad court−1.4137

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Through the middle30%
Wide serves · deuce49%
T serves · ad44%
FH down the line33%
Unforced errors / shot10.8%
1st serve in63%
Deep returns29%
Avg rally length4.1
Drop shots / shot1.7%
Chipped returns15%
Serve & volley6%
Points at net11%
Point-ending shots21.8%
Run-around forehands14%
Backhand slice14%
BH down the line16%
Wide serves · ad46%
Forehand share49%
T serves · deuce39%

Plays most like

  1. Alexander Shevchenko 2023–2026 plan v
  2. Gregoire Barrere 2016–2024 plan v
  3. Luca Nardi 2022–2025 plan v
  4. Karen Khachanov 2015–2026 plan v
  5. Laslo Djere 2018–2026 plan v
  6. Fabio Fognini 2012–2025 plan v
  7. Otto Virtanen 2022–2025 plan v
  8. Rinky Hijikata 2023–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Ivan Ljubicic 2003–2011
  2. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  3. Jarkko Nieminen 2003–2014

Charted matches