US Open · R32 · Hard · 30 Aug 2024
Novak Djokovic v Alexei Popyrin
127–130 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Alexei Popyrin won 2.0 more points than Novak Djokovic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Novak Djokovic's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −5.0, slice shot selection −2.6, touch execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Novak Djokovic | Alexei Popyrin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.2 | −0.7 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −2.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −5.0 | −5.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.7 | −1.7 | −0.6 | −0.7 | +0.6 | −3.8 | −3.9 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +3.1 | +1.7 | +5.1 | +0.6 | +4.2 | +2.8 | +7.7 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +1.2 | +0.6 | +1.4 | −0.5 | +1.2 | −3.4 | −2.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.6 | +0.7 | −1.8 | −0.2 | −6.4 | +2.1 | −4.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.6 | +2.5 | +4.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.9 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.7 | +2.9 | −7.2 | −3.6 | −1.0 | +1.4 | −2.1 | −1.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Novak Djokovic | Alexei Popyrin | Net, Novak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.1 | +1.3 | −0.2 | |
| 2 | −5.3 | −1.4 | −3.9 | |
| 3 | +0.7 | −4.7 | +5.3 | |
| 4 | −0.1 | +3.1 | −3.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Novak Djokovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 69% | 8% 50% | 25% 67% |
| 2 | 45% 60% | 9% 100% | 45% 60% |
| 3 | 44% 67% | 7% 100% | 48% 54% |
| 4 | 67% 42% | 7% 67% | 26% 83% |
Set to set −0.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexei Popyrin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 63% | 14% 80% | 42% 67% |
| 2 | 41% 91% | 22% 83% | 37% 60% |
| 3 | 38% 50% | 27% 43% | 35% 33% |
| 4 | 45% 76% | 13% 0% | 42% 63% |
Set to set +0.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Novak Djokovic
9.9 points left on the table across 426 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Alexei Popyrin
12.5 points left on the table across 437 shots 2.86 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts