ITF Sao Paulo · QF · Clay · 4 Oct 2024
Irene Burillo Escorihuela v Laura Pigossi
49–66 in points · Laura Pigossi won
Why it went the way it did
Laura Pigossi won 8.8 more points than Irene Burillo Escorihuela relative to what the serve alone predicted. Irene Burillo Escorihuela's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.2, backhand execution −1.0, forehand execution −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Irene Burillo Escorihuela | Laura Pigossi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +1.7 | +0.8 | +0.6 | +2.1 | +3.5 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +4.7 | −1.0 | +4.5 | +0.3 | +4.5 | +4.0 | +8.8 |
| Backhand | +0.9 | +1.8 | −1.0 | +1.6 | +1.0 | +1.7 | +2.3 | +5.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.2 | +0.5 | −1.7 | −0.2 | −1.3 | +1.0 | −0.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +2.0 | +4.9 | +1.9 | +8.7 | +1.7 | +5.9 | +10.0 | +17.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Irene Burillo Escorihuela | Laura Pigossi | Net, Irene | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.9 | +9.0 | −5.1 | |
| 2 | +4.8 | +8.4 | −3.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Irene Burillo Escorihuela serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71% 36% | 19% 17% | 10% 33% |
| 2 | 66% 42% | 24% 57% | 10% 100% |
Set to set −0.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Laura Pigossi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 60% | 40% 38% | 10% 0% |
| 2 | 40% 71% | 40% 64% | 20% 43% |
Within sets −0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Irene Burillo Escorihuela
6.6 points left on the table across 378 shots 1.74 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Laura Pigossi
5.9 points left on the table across 364 shots 1.61 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts