Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 12 Jan 2025
Kei Nishikori v Thiago Monteiro
162–147 in points · Kei Nishikori won
Why it went the way it did
Kei Nishikori won 11.8 more points than Thiago Monteiro relative to what the serve alone predicted. Thiago Monteiro's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.4, backhand execution −3.4, return execution −3.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kei Nishikori | Thiago Monteiro | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.1 | +2.8 | +3.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +2.9 | +2.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.3 | −2.8 | −3.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.1 | −3.1 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.4 | +0.3 | +2.0 | −0.3 | +2.7 | +0.6 | +3.1 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +1.3 | +3.6 | +4.8 | −0.2 | +0.8 | −3.4 | −2.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.3 | +1.3 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −4.4 | −1.1 | −5.8 |
| Net | −0.6 | +0.9 | −0.6 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −0.7 | −2.4 |
| All shots | −0.3 | +0.9 | +5.0 | +5.6 | −0.4 | −2.9 | −2.9 | −6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Kei Nishikori | Thiago Monteiro | Net, Kei | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.2 | +0.9 | −1.0 | |
| 2 | −0.4 | +0.7 | −1.0 | |
| 3 | −0.6 | −2.4 | +1.8 | |
| 4 | +4.5 | −2.9 | +7.5 | |
| 5 | +2.3 | −2.4 | +4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kei Nishikori serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 79% | 12% 33% | 35% 67% |
| 2 | 44% 75% | – | 56% 75% |
| 3 | 40% 79% | 3% 100% | 57% 70% |
| 4 | 48% 90% | 14% 67% | 38% 63% |
| 5 | 55% 67% | 9% 50% | 36% 100% |
Set to set +0.02 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Thiago Monteiro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 76% | 7% 100% | 34% 60% |
| 2 | 49% 84% | 10% 50% | 41% 75% |
| 3 | 50% 59% | 9% 75% | 41% 78% |
| 4 | 48% 47% | 3% 0% | 48% 53% |
| 5 | 46% 67% | 4% 100% | 50% 46% |
Set to set +0.45 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kei Nishikori
11.7 points left on the table across 456 shots 2.57 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
Thiago Monteiro
14.2 points left on the table across 443 shots 3.21 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.83 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.63 pts