RallyIQ

Brussels · R16 · Hard · 15 Oct 2025

Francisco Comesana v Raphael Collignon

108–103 in points · Raphael Collignon won

Why it went the way it did

Raphael Collignon won 0.1 more points than Francisco Comesana relative to what the serve alone predicted. Francisco Comesana's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.2, return execution −2.2, return shot selection −2.0.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotFrancisco ComesanaRaphael Collignon
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st ±0.0 −0.1 +0.6 +0.5 −0.7 −0.2 +0.4 −0.5
Serve 2nd ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.1 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.5 −0.6
Return −0.4 −2.0 −2.2 −4.6 +0.3 +0.2 −1.9 −1.4
Forehand −1.5 +5.0 +1.1 +4.5 ±0.0 +3.7 −3.5 +0.3
Backhand +0.1 +2.0 −1.6 +0.5 −0.1 ±0.0 +1.6 +1.5
Slice +0.1 −3.2 ±0.0 −3.0 −0.1 −2.0 +1.3 −0.8
Net +0.3 ±0.0 +0.6 +0.8 −0.1 +0.1 −0.2 −0.2
Touch +0.2 −0.4 −0.5 −0.6 ±0.0 −0.2 +0.1 ±0.0
Other ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.2 +0.2 ±0.0
All shots −1.1+1.4 −2.0−1.8 −0.6+1.4 −2.5−1.7

Set by set

SetFrancisco ComesanaRaphael CollignonNet, Francisco
1−1.3+1.3 −2.6
2+0.1−3.4 +3.5
3−0.6+0.4 −1.0

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Francisco Comesana serving

SetWideBodyT
1 26% 60% 11% 75% 63% 67%
2 32% 80% 10% 100% 58% 61%
3 40% 71% 7% 33% 53% 74%

Set to set +0.10 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.68 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Raphael Collignon serving

SetWideBodyT
1 29% 70% 18% 67% 53% 78%
2 43% 78% 19% 50% 38% 38%
3 21% 89% 28% 75% 51% 64%

Set to set −1.44 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Francisco Comesana

10.4 points left on the table across 356 shots 2.91 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
  3. Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
  4. Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts

Raphael Collignon

8.3 points left on the table across 353 shots 2.36 per 100 shots

  1. Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts