RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2024–2025

Raphael Collignon

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.0% ±3.6 raw 61.4% · tour 63.4% · 671 points
Return points won 38.6% ±3.7 raw 37.1% · tour 36.6% · 623 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice ±0.00 ±0.08 better than 56% of ATP · raw ±0.00
Shot selection +0.31 ±0.27 better than 81% of ATP · raw +0.32
Execution −0.34 ±0.59 better than 52% of ATP · raw −0.23
Points left on the table 2.32 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 82% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,738 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Raphael Collignon goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 247 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 27% 54.6%±8.8 52.7%
FH through the middle 21% 50.6%±9.7 47.0%
FH down the line 21% 53.9%±9.7 51.5%
BH crosscourt 14% 44.1%±11.1 49.1%
BH through the middle 10% 47.5%±12.2 46.8%
BH down the line 5% 47.4%±14.3 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 227 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 47% 46.4%±7.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 28% 50.3%±9.0 43.7%
BH down the line 8% 46.9%±13.1 46.4%
FH inside-out 5% 46.3%±14.7 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 166 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 50% 47.3%±8.2 46.6%
FH through the middle 28% 42.0%±10.1 41.5%
FH down the line 16% 42.1%±12.1 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 6% 29.7%±13.7 24.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 148 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 25% 46.6%±10.9 52.7%
FH down the line 22% 51.7%±11.3 52.0%
FH through the middle 16% 47.6%±12.5 47.4%
BH crosscourt 15% 42.6%±12.6 49.6%
BH through the middle 14% 52.1%±12.8 46.8%
BH down the line 8% 43.4%±14.4 49.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +12 How much less varied Raphael Collignon's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 60 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 42% 72% / 73%
Body 13% 0% ▼ 67% / 63%
T 46% 58% ▲ 72% / 75%

338 normal · 12 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 38% 42% 74% / 73%
Body 10% 6% 59% / 63%
T 52% 52% 72% / 72%

272 normal · 48 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 65.3%±5.9 n=146 55% ▲
Body12% 62.4%±9.3 n=43 0% ▼
T46% 56.8%±5.9 n=161 45% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.17).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide38% 64.5%±6.4 n=122 51% ▲
Body10% 54.2%±10.5 n=31 0% ▼
T52% 61.6%±5.7 n=167 49% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.17).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.54 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.2±6.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (243 repeats, 415 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 26 38% +0.7±10.7
1stAd courtT 106 33% +5.4±6.7
1stAd courtWide 61 30% +2.6±7.9
1stDeuce courtBody 40 33% −3.8±9.2
1stDeuce courtT 97 24% −1.0±6.2
1stDeuce courtWide 86 25% −2.0±6.6
2ndAd courtBody 46 50% +0.4±9.4
2ndAd courtT 22 50% +0.3±11.4
2ndAd courtWide 33 50% +1.6±10.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 39 53% +4.2±9.9
2ndDeuce courtT 43 53% +3.6±9.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 21 48% −0.2±11.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Raphael Collignon's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.3% · won 71% · −0.9±10.3 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.3% · won 71% · −0.9±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 5.9% · won 67% · −4.7±10.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 11.1% · won 48% · +3.1±11.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 14.7% · won 40% · −4.4±10.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 51% · +5.7±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 3.7% · won 50% · +4.8±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 4.1% · won 49% · +4.0±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 3.6% · won 49% · +4.0±11.0 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 4.5% · won 47% · +1.7±10.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Raphael Collignon wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 54% · +5.6±11.6 vs own baseline · +11.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Casper Ruud (3/6), Alex De Minaur (5/8)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 0.8% · won 52% · +2.8±12.6 vs own baseline · +10.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Botic Van De Zandschulp (3/6)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 50% · +1.6±11.6 vs own baseline · −2.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Botic Van De Zandschulp (7/13)
  4. FH through the middle → FH down the line → BH through the middle used 0.7% · won 48% · −0.8±13.0 vs own baseline · +5.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Botic Van De Zandschulp (4/11)
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 47% · −1.4±11.5 vs own baseline · −2.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Botic Van De Zandschulp (2/7), Casper Ruud (2/6)
  6. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 47% · −1.8±12.5 vs own baseline · −8.3 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · rally+2.8168
FH to their backhand · serve +1+2.6133
BH to the middle · rally+2.5166
BH to the middle · return+1.9121
BH to their backhand · rally+1.0246

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · serve +1−4.8120
FH to the middle · rally−2.7182
BH to the middle · rally−2.4189
FH to the middle · return−2.2175
BH to the middle · return−2.2126

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Brandon Nakashima, Rinky Hijikata, Thiago Seyboth Wild, Jannik Sinner

Charted matches