Stockholm · R16 · Hard · 15 Oct 2025
Marin Cilic v Casper Ruud
63–84 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Casper Ruud won 17.2 more points than Marin Cilic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marin Cilic's biggest leaks: return execution −3.2, serve 1st execution −2.3, backhand execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marin Cilic | Casper Ruud | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.2 | −2.3 | −2.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.2 | −3.2 | −2.9 | +0.8 | −1.3 | −3.0 | −3.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +2.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +3.9 | +4.6 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | −0.4 | −1.6 | −1.7 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +4.3 | +5.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.1 | −2.3 | ±0.0 | −2.4 | +0.2 | −2.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +3.1 | +3.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +0.2 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −0.9 | −8.1 | −8.0 | +1.1 | −2.0 | +10.1 | +9.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Marin Cilic | Casper Ruud | Net, Marin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.9 | +3.2 | −10.1 | |
| 2 | −1.2 | +6.0 | −7.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marin Cilic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 52% | 2% 0% | 49% 61% |
| 2 | 61% 60% | 9% 33% | 30% 70% |
Set to set −1.98 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.62 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Casper Ruud serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 67% | 3% 100% | 55% 88% |
| 2 | 68% 93% | 5% 100% | 27% 83% |
Set to set −4.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.54 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marin Cilic
3.3 points left on the table across 185 shots 1.77 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your backhand side hit BH volley crosscourt ×2; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your forehand side hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.15 pts
Casper Ruud
4.1 points left on the table across 204 shots 1.99 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH lob down the line ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts