Athens · R32 · Hard · 2 Nov 2025
Sebastian Korda v Alexei Popyrin
89–79 in points · Sebastian Korda won
Why it went the way it did
Sebastian Korda won 5.6 more points than Alexei Popyrin relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexei Popyrin's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.6, slice shot selection −3.5, serve 2nd execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sebastian Korda | Alexei Popyrin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +3.8 | +3.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.8 | +0.9 | ±0.0 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +1.3 | +2.6 | +3.6 | +0.4 | +1.7 | +0.7 | +2.9 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −4.6 | −4.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.6 | −0.7 | −2.2 | −0.1 | −3.5 | +0.9 | −2.7 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +1.0 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.7 | +1.8 | +1.0 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −1.0 |
| All shots | +0.8 | −0.8 | +4.4 | +4.4 | +0.5 | −3.0 | +1.3 | −1.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Sebastian Korda | Alexei Popyrin | Net, Sebastian | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.2 | +1.4 | −3.6 | |
| 2 | +3.2 | −1.2 | +4.3 | |
| 3 | +3.4 | −1.5 | +4.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sebastian Korda serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 50% | – | 47% 86% |
| 2 | 46% 75% | 4% 100% | 50% 77% |
| 3 | 54% 71% | 4% 100% | 42% 82% |
Set to set +0.77 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexei Popyrin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 70% | – | 62% 88% |
| 2 | 64% 56% | – | 36% 67% |
| 3 | 54% 63% | 9% 100% | 37% 46% |
Set to set −0.73 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.76 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sebastian Korda
5.0 points left on the table across 213 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Return +1: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.18 pts
Alexei Popyrin
5.8 points left on the table across 215 shots 2.70 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts