Rotterdam · R32 · Hard · 9 Feb 2026
Roberto Bautista Agut v Cameron Norrie
66–85 in points · Cameron Norrie won
Why it went the way it did
Cameron Norrie won 5.4 more points than Roberto Bautista Agut relative to what the serve alone predicted. Roberto Bautista Agut's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −1.8, slice shot selection −0.9, return direction choices −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roberto Bautista Agut | Cameron Norrie | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.8 | −1.9 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.5 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +1.6 | +2.3 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +2.1 | −0.1 | +2.8 | +1.2 | +2.4 | +0.2 | +3.7 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | +0.7 | −0.5 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.2 | +2.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | +2.0 | +0.1 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +2.4 | −0.5 | +1.4 | +0.7 | +2.6 | +3.6 | +6.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Roberto Bautista Agut | Cameron Norrie | Net, Roberto | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | |
| 2 | +0.2 | +6.9 | −6.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roberto Bautista Agut serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 73% | 9% 50% | 45% 38% |
| 2 | 50% 63% | 6% 0% | 44% 43% |
Set to set +0.65 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Cameron Norrie serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 59% | 20% 29% | 33% 70% |
| 2 | 33% 83% | 11% 100% | 56% 90% |
Set to set +2.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roberto Bautista Agut
8.0 points left on the table across 360 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×8; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Cameron Norrie
7.5 points left on the table across 359 shots 2.09 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts