Acapulco · R32 · Hard · 23 Feb 2026
Rafael Jodar v Cameron Norrie
53–31 in points · Rafael Jodar won
Why it went the way it did
Rafael Jodar won 9.7 more points than Cameron Norrie relative to what the serve alone predicted. Cameron Norrie's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.0, slice shot selection −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Rafael Jodar | Cameron Norrie | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +4.0 | +4.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +3.4 | +3.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.6 | +3.3 | +3.8 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.2 | +2.2 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.9 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −4.0 | −4.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +0.4 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.4 | +0.4 | +8.9 | +9.7 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Rafael Jodar | Cameron Norrie | Net, Rafael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.8 | +1.7 | +2.1 | |
| 2 | +5.8 | −1.8 | +7.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Rafael Jodar serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% 74% | – | 30% 75% |
| 2 | 53% 89% | 12% 100% | 35% 100% |
Set to set −0.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Cameron Norrie serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% 62% | – | 38% 75% |
| 2 | 44% 63% | 11% 50% | 44% 38% |
Within sets +2.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Rafael Jodar
1.9 points left on the table across 104 shots 1.78 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
Cameron Norrie
2.9 points left on the table across 106 shots 2.75 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH inside-in ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.15 pts