RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 10 charted matches · 2025–2026

Rafael Jodar

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.9% ±3.4 raw 60.7% · tour 63.4% · 662 points
Return points won 39.2% ±3.5 raw 39.1% · tour 36.6% · 631 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.18 ±0.12 better than 93% of ATP · raw +0.19
Shot selection +0.07 ±0.08 better than 61% of ATP · raw +0.07
Execution +0.37 ±1.34 better than 81% of ATP · raw +0.43
Tactical adaptability −0.06 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 10 matches
Adaptation speed +0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.06 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 99% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,138 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Rafael Jodar goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 247 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 51% 39.8%±6.6 47.6%
BH through the middle 26% 50.3%±9.0 43.7%
BH down the line 19% 47.5%±10.0 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 181 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 59% 45.5%±7.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 18% 35.2%±10.9 41.5%
FH down the line 12% 49.9%±12.7 44.7%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 111 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 49.8%±9.9 46.9%
BH through the middle 31% 38.2%±10.9 43.0%
BH down the line 25% 39.2%±11.6 44.2%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 102 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 54% 42.1%±9.4 48.0%
BH down the line 27% 54.8%±11.8 46.5%
BH through the middle 19% 50.7%±13.2 43.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +27 How much less varied Rafael Jodar's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 71 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 18% ▼ 74% / 73%
Body 3% 0% 53% / 63%
T 50% 82% ▲ 71% / 75%

328 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 51% 69% ▲ 73% / 73%
Body 11% 4% 61% / 63%
T 38% 27% ▼ 64% / 72%

263 normal · 49 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 65.0%±5.7 n=159 58% ▲
Body3% 50.9%±13.2 n=9 0% ▼
T52% 59.6%±5.5 n=182 42% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.10).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 61.5%±5.7 n=169 67% ▲
Body10% 63.0%±10.3 n=30 0% ▼
T36% 57.3%±6.8 n=113 33% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.53).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.48 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.1±8.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (217 repeats, 425 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 7 33% −4.3±12.7
1stAd courtT 59 34% +6.1±8.3
1stAd courtWide 117 31% +3.5±6.3
1stDeuce courtBody 7 41% +3.9±13.3
1stDeuce courtT 99 36% +11.0±7.0
1stDeuce courtWide 106 32% +5.3±6.6
2ndAd courtBody 33 46% −3.6±10.3
2ndAd courtT 14 54% +4.8±12.4
2ndAd courtWide 67 44% −4.5±8.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 27 56% +6.6±10.8
2ndDeuce courtT 63 47% −2.5±8.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 32 41% −7.1±10.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Rafael Jodar's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 6.1% · won 66% · +1.4±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 7.6% · won 64% · −1.1±9.7 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 58% · −6.6±11.1 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 5.9% · won 50% · −14.9±10.9 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 10.0% · won 54% · +5.3±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 12.6% · won 45% · −3.6±10.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 11.3% · won 37% · −11.9±10.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.5% · won 58% · +9.1±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 12.2% · won 51% · +2.8±8.9 vs own baseline
  3. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 6.0% · won 50% · +1.6±11.1 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 50% · +1.6±11.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 8.6% · won 49% · +0.8±10.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Rafael Jodar wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.0% · won 50% · +3.7±12.9 vs own baseline · +13.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Learner Tien (7/11)
  2. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 48% · +1.7±11.5 vs own baseline · +1.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Learner Tien (7/16), Cameron Norrie (3/6)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.2% · won 48% · +1.4±12.6 vs own baseline · +3.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Arthur Fils (5/9)
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.4% · won 47% · +0.4±12.1 vs own baseline · −0.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Cameron Norrie (1/7), Learner Tien (8/13)
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 44% · −2.5±13.0 vs own baseline · −8.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Arthur Fils (4/10)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 44% · −2.7±11.9 vs own baseline · −7.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · deuce court+1.5182
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+1.3159
BH to the middle · return+1.3126
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.3169
BH to their forehand · rally+1.1144

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−1.6209
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.5170
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.2187
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.2153
FH to the middle · return−0.7125

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Unforced errors / shot12.4%
T serves · deuce52%
Forehand share58%
Deep returns33%
BH down the line24%
Wide serves · ad54%
Point-ending shots26.0%
1st serve in63%
Wide serves · deuce45%
Avg rally length3.8
T serves · ad36%
Run-around forehands15%
Serve & volley0%
Chipped returns10%
Drop shots / shot0.6%
Through the middle20%
Points at net4%
Backhand slice4%
FH down the line25%

Plays most like

  1. Ugo Humbert 2019–2026 plan v
  2. Fernando Verdasco 2005–2022 plan v
  3. Sebastian Korda 2021–2026 plan v
  4. Sebastian Ofner 2022–2025 plan v
  5. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  6. Joao Fonseca 2024–2026 plan v
  7. David Goffin 2013–2025 plan v
  8. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014
  2. Robin Soderling 2004–2011
  3. Marcelo Rios 1995–2001

Charted matches